Taking Stock, July 2014
2014
World Bank
Global growth is projected to pick up to 3.4 percent in 2015 and 3.5 percent in 2016, propelled by highincome countries. Developing country growth will benefit from these tailwinds, with growth projected to increase from 4.8 percent in 2014 to 5.5 percent in 2016 broadly in line with potential. Global growth projections for 2014, however, have been marked down from 3.2 percent to 2.8 percent on account of the bumpy start this year, buffeted by poor weather in the United States, financial market turbulence and the conflict in Ukraine. The outlook for the East Asia and the Pacific region continues to reflect several counterbalancing factors, including domestic policy adjustment, volatile financing conditions, political crisis in Thailand, and sustained recovery in global demand for exports. Regional GDP growth is expected to slow down slightly to 7.0 percent by 2016, about 2 percentage points slower than the pre-crisis boom years but broadly in line with potential. Regional risks include volatility and eventual tightening of global financing conditions, possible setbacks in China s restructuring and a weaker contribution from net exports than assumed in the baseline. Potential escalation of regional political tensions presents additional risk to the outlook.
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