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Physics-informed machine learning algorithms for forecasting sediment yield: an analysis of physical consistency, sensitivity, and interpretability
2024
El Bilali, A. | Brouziyne, Youssef | Attar, O. | Lamane, H. | Hadri, A. | Taleb, A.
The sediment transport, involving the movement of the bedload and suspended sediment in the basins, is a critical environmental concern that worsens water scarcity and leads to degradation of land and its ecosystems. Machine learning (ML) algorithms have emerged as powerful tools for predicting sediment yield. However, their use by decision-makers can be attributed to concerns regarding their consistency with the involved physical processes. In light of this issue, this study aims to develop a physics-informed ML approach for predicting sediment yield. To achieve this objective, Gaussian, Center, Regular, and Direct Copulas were employed to generate virtual combinations of physical of the sub-basins and hydrological datasets. These datasets were then utilized to train deep neural network (DNN), conventional neural network (CNN), Extra Tree, and XGBoost (XGB) models. The performance of these models was compared with the modified universal soil loss equation (MUSLE), which serves as a process-based model. The results demonstrated that the ML models outperformed the MUSLE model, exhibiting improvements in Nash–Sutcliffe efficiency (NSE) of approximately 10%, 18%, 32%, and 41% for the DNN, CNN, Extra Tree, and XGB models, respectively. Furthermore, through Sobol sensitivity and Shapley additive explanation–based interpretability analyses, it was revealed that the Extra Tree model displayed greater consistency with the physical processes underlying sediment transport as modeled by MUSLE. The proposed framework provides new insights into enhancing the accuracy and applicability of ML models in forecasting sediment yield while maintaining consistency with natural processes. Consequently, it can prove valuable in simulating process-related strategies aimed at mitigating sediment transport at watershed scales, such as the implementation of best management practices.
Show more [+] Less [-]Use of artificial neural network to evaluate cadmium contamination in farmland soils in a karst area with naturally high background values
2022
Li, Cheng | Zhang, Chaosheng | Yu, Tao | Liu, Xu | Yang, Yeyu | Hou, Qingye | Yang, Zhongfang | Ma, Xudong | Wang, Lei
In recent years, the naturally high background value region of Cd derived from the weathering of carbonate has received wide attention. Due to the significant difference in soil Cd content and bioavailability among different parent materials, the previous land classification scheme based on total soil Cd content as the classification standard, has certain shortcomings. This study aims to explore the factors influencing soil Cd bioavailability in typical karst areas of Guilin and to suggest a scientific and effective farmland use management plan based on the prediction model. A total of 9393 and 8883 topsoil samples were collected from karst and non-karst areas, respectively. Meanwhile, 149 and 145 rice samples were collected together with rhizosphere soil in karst and non-karst areas, respectively. The results showed that the higher CaO level in the karst area was a key factor leading to elevated soil pH value. Although Cd was highly enriched in karst soils, the higher pH value and adsorption of Mn oxidation inhibited Cd mobility in soils. Conversely, the Cd content in non-karst soils was lower, whereas the Cd level in rice grains was higher. To select the optimal prediction model based on the correlation between Cd bioaccumulation factors and geochemical parameters of soil, artificial neural network (ANN) and linear regression prediction models were established in this study. The ANN prediction model was more accurate than the traditional linear regression model according to the evaluation parameters of the test set. Furthermore, a new land classification scheme based on an ANN prediction model and soil Cd concentration is proposed in this study, making full use of the spatial resources of farmland to ensure safe rice consumption.
Show more [+] Less [-]Radon potential mapping in Jangsu-gun, South Korea using probabilistic and deep learning algorithms
2022
Rezaie, Fatemeh | Panahi, Mahdi | Lee, Jongchun | Lee, Jungsub | Kim, Seonhong | Yoo, Juhee | Lee, Saro
The adverse health effects associated with the inhalation and ingestion of naturally occurring radon gas produced during the uranium decay chain mean that there is a need to identify high-risk areas. This study detected radon-prone areas using a geographic information system (GIS)-based probabilistic and machine learning methods, including the frequency ratio (FR) model and a convolutional neural network (CNN). Ten influencing factors, namely elevation, slope, the topographic wetness index (TWI), valley depth, fault density, lithology, and the average soil copper (Cu), calcium oxide (Cao), ferric oxide (Fe₂O₃), and lead (Pb) concentrations, were analyzed. In total, 27 rock samples with high activity concentration index values were divided randomly into training and validation datasets (70:30 ratio) to train the models. Areas were categorized as very high, high, moderate, low, and very low radon areas. According to the models, approximately 40% of the study area was classified as very high or high risk. Finally, the radon potential maps were validated using the area under the receiver operating characteristic curve (AUC) analysis. This showed that the CNN algorithm was superior to the FR method; for the former, AUC values of 0.844 and 0.840 were obtained using the training and validation datasets, respectively. However, both algorithms had high predictive power. Slope, lithology, and TWI were the best predictors of radon-affected areas. These results provide new information regarding the spatial distribution of radon, and could inform the development of new residential areas. Radon screening is important to reduce public exposure to high levels of naturally occurring radiation.
Show more [+] Less [-]Dynamic model to predict the association between air quality, COVID-19 cases, and level of lockdown
2021
Tadano, Yara S. | Potgieter-Vermaak, Sanja | Kachba, Yslene R. | Chiroli, Daiane M.G. | Casacio, Luciana | Santos-Silva, Jéssica C. | Moreira, Camila A.B. | Machado, Vivian | Alves, Thiago Antonini | Siqueira, Hugo | Godoi, Ricardo H.M.
Studies have reported significant reductions in air pollutant levels due to the COVID-19 outbreak worldwide global lockdowns. Nevertheless, all of the reports are limited compared to data from the same period over the past few years, providing mainly an overview of past events, with no future predictions. Lockdown level can be directly related to the number of new COVID-19 cases, air pollution, and economic restriction. As lockdown status varies considerably across the globe, there is a window for mega-cities to determine the optimum lockdown flexibility. To that end, firstly, we employed four different Artificial Neural Networks (ANN) to examine the compatibility to the original levels of CO, O₃, NO₂, NO, PM₂.₅, and PM₁₀, for São Paulo City, the current Pandemic epicenter in South America. After checking compatibility, we simulated four hypothetical scenarios: 10%, 30%, 70%, and 90% lockdown to predict air pollution levels. To our knowledge, ANN have not been applied to air pollution prediction by lockdown level. Using a limited database, the Multilayer Perceptron neural network has proven to be robust (with Mean Absolute Percentage Error ∼ 30%), with acceptable predictive power to estimate air pollution changes. We illustrate that air pollutant levels can effectively be controlled and predicted when flexible lockdown measures are implemented. The models will be a useful tool for governments to manage the delicate balance among lockdown, number of COVID-19 cases, and air pollution.
Show more [+] Less [-]Microplastics pollution in the soil mulched by dust-proof nets: A case study in Beijing, China
2021
Chen, Yixiang | Wu, Yihang | Ma, Jin | An, Yanfei | Liu, Jiyuan | Yang, Shuhui | Qu, Yajing | Chen, Haiyan | Zhao, Wenhao | Tian, Yuxin
As a driving factor of global changes, microplastics have gradually attracted widespread attention. Although MPs are extensively studied in aquatic systems, their presence and fate in terrestrial systems and soil are not fully understood. In China, construction-land must be mulched by dust-proof nets to prevent and control fine particulate pollution, which may cause MPs pollution and increase ecological risks. In order to understand the pollution characteristics and sources of MP in the soil covered by dust nets, we conducted a case study in Beijing. Our results revealed that the abundance of MPs in soil mulched by dust-proof nets ranged from 272 to 13,752 items/kg. Large-sized particles (>1000 μm) made up a significant proportion (49.83%) of MPs in the study area. The dominant MP polymer types were polyethylene (50.12%) and polypropylene (41.25%). The accumulation of MPs in construction-site soil mulched by dust-proof nets (average, 4910.2 items/kg) was significantly higher (P < 0.05) than that in unmulched soil (average, 840.8 items/kg), which indicates a dust-proof nets as an essential source of microplastics in the soil of construction land. We applied a remote-sensing data analysis technique based on remote imagery acquired from a high-resolution remote-sensing satellite combined with deep-learning convolutional neural networks to automatically detect and segment dust-proof nets. Based on high-resolution remote sensing images and using a U-net convolutional neural network, we extract the coverage area of Beijing’s dust-proof nets (18.6 km²). Combined the abundance of MPs and the dust-proof nets’ coverage area, we roughly estimate that 7.616 × 10⁹ to 3.581 × 10¹¹ MPs accumulated in the soil mulched by the dust-proof nets in Beijing. Such a large amount of MPs may cause a series of environmental problems. This study will highlight the understanding of soil MPs pollution and its potential environmental impacts for scientists and policymakers. It provides suggestions for decision-makers to formulate effective legislation and policies, so as to protect human health and protect the soil and the wider environment.
Show more [+] Less [-]Spatial patterning of chlorophyll a and water-quality measurements for determining environmental thresholds for local eutrophication in the Nakdong River basin
2021
Kim, Hyo Gyeom | Hong, Sungwon | Chon, Tae Soo | Joo, Gea-Jae
Management of water-quality in a river ecosystem needs to be focused on susceptible regions to eutrophication based on proper measurements. The stress–response relationships between nutrients and primary productivity of phytoplankton allow the derivation of ecologically acceptable thresholds of stressors under field conditions. However, spatio-temporal variations in heterogeneous environmental conditions have hindered the development of locally applicable criteria. To address these issues, we utilized a combination of a geographically specialized artificial neural network (Geo-SOM, geo-self-organizing map) and linear mixed-effect models (LMMs). The model was applied to a 24-month dataset of 54 stations that spanned a wide spatial gradient in the Nakdong River basin. The Geo-SOM classified 1286 observations in the basin into 13 clusters that were regionally and seasonally distinct. Inclusion of the random effects of Geo-SOM clustering improved the performance of each LMM, which suggests that there were significant spatio-temporal variations in the Chla–stressor relationships. These variations arise owing to differences in background seasonality and the effects of local pollutant variables and land-use patterns. Among the 16 environmental variables, the major stressors for Chla were total phosphate (TP) as a nutrient and biological oxygen demand (BOD) as a non-nutrient according to the results of both Geo-SOM and LMM analyses. Based on LMMs with the random effect of the Geo-SOM clusters on the intercept and the slope, we can propose recommended thresholds for TP (18.5 μg L⁻¹) and BOD (1.6 mg L⁻¹) in the Nakdong River. The combined method of LMM and Geo-SOM will be useful in guiding appropriate local water-quality-management strategies and in the global development of large-scale nutrient criteria.
Show more [+] Less [-]Assessment of kitchen emissions using a backpropagation neural network model based on urinary hydroxy polycyclic aromatic hydrocarbons
2020
Gan, Dong | Huang, Daizheng | Yang, Jie | Zhang, Li’e | Ou, Songfeng | Feng, Yumeng | Peng, Yang | Peng, Xiaowu | Zhang, Zhiyong | Zou, Yunfeng
Kitchen emissions are mixed indoor air pollutants with adverse health effects, but the large-scale assessment is limited by costly equipment and survey methods. This study aimed to discuss the application of backpropagation (BP) neural network models in the assessment of kitchen emissions based on the exposure marker. A total of 3686 participants were recruited for the kitchen survey, and their sleep quality was measured by the Pittsburgh sleep quality index (PSQI). After excluding the confounders, 365 participants were selected to assess their urinary hydroxy polycyclic aromatic hydrocarbons (OH-PAHs) concentrations by ultra-high-performance liquid chromatography/tandem mass spectrometry. Two BP neural network models were then set up using the survey and detection data from the 365 participants and used to predict the total urinary OH-PAHs concentrations of all participants. The total urinary OH-PAHs and 1-hydroxy-naphthalene (1-OHNap) concentrations were significantly higher among the 365 participants with poor sleep quality (global PSQI score > 5; P < 0.05). Results from internal and external validation showed that our model has high credibility (model 2). Further, the participants with higher predicted total urinary OH-PAHs concentrations were associated with the global PSQI score of >5 (odds ratio (OR) = 1.284, 95% confidence interval (CI) = 1.082–1.525 for participants with predicted total urinary OH-PAHs concentrations of over 1.897 μg/mmol creatinine in model 1, and OR = 1.467, 95% CI = 1.240–1.735 for participants with predicted total urinary OH-PAHs concentrations of over 2.253 μg/mmol creatinine in model 2) after adjusting for the confounders. Findings suggest that the BP neural network model is suitable for assessing kitchen emissions, and the urinary OH-PAHs concentrations can be taken as the model outlay.
Show more [+] Less [-]Long-term calibration models to estimate ozone concentrations with a metal oxide sensor
2020
Sayahi, Tofigh | Garff, Alicia | Quah, Timothy | Lê, Katrina | Becnel, Thomas | Powell, Kody M. | Gaillardon, Pierre-Emmanuel | Butterfield, Anthony E. | Kelly, Kerry E.
Ozone (O₃) is a potent oxidant associated with adverse health effects. Low-cost O₃ sensors, such as metal oxide (MO) sensors, can complement regulatory O₃ measurements and enhance the spatiotemporal resolution of measurements. However, the quality of MO sensor data remains a challenge. The University of Utah has a network of low-cost air quality sensors (called AirU) that primarily measures PM₂.₅ concentrations around the Salt Lake City valley (Utah, U.S.). The AirU package also contains a low-cost MO sensor ($8) that measures oxidizing/reducing species. These MO sensors exhibited excellent laboratory response to O₃ although they exhibited some intra-sensor variability. Field performance was evaluated by placing eight AirUs at two Division of Air Quality (DAQ) monitoring stations with O₃ federal equivalence methods for one year to develop long-term multiple linear regression (MLR) and artificial neural network (ANN) calibration models to predict O₃ concentrations. Six sensors served as train/test sets. The remaining two sensors served as a holdout set to evaluate the applicability of the new calibration models in predicting O₃ concentrations for other sensors of the same type. A rigorous variable selection method was also performed by least absolute shrinkage and selection operator (LASSO), MLR and ANN models. The variable selection indicated that the AirU’s MO oxidizing species and temperature measurements and DAQ’s solar radiation measurements were the most important variables. The MLR calibration model exhibited moderate performance (R² = 0.491), and the ANN exhibited good performance (R² = 0.767) for the holdout set. We also evaluated the performance of the MLR and ANN models in predicting O₃ for five months after the calibration period and the results showed moderate correlations (R²s of 0.427 and 0.567, respectively). These low-cost MO sensors combined with a long-term ANN calibration model can complement reference measurements to understand geospatial and temporal differences in O₃ levels.
Show more [+] Less [-]Using artificial neural network to investigate physiological changes and cerium oxide nanoparticles and cadmium uptake by Brassica napus plants
2019
Rossi, Lorenzo | Bagheri, Majid | Zhang, Weilan | Chen, Zehua | Burken, Joel G. | Ma, Xingmao
Heavy metals and emerging engineered nanoparticles (ENPs) are two current environmental concerns that have attracted considerable attention. Cerium oxide nanoparticles (CeO₂NPs) are now used in a plethora of industrial products, while cadmium (Cd) is a great environmental concern because of its toxicity to animals and humans. Up to now, the interactions between heavy metals, nanoparticles and plants have not been extensively studied. The main objectives of this study were (i) to determine the synergistic effects of Cd and CeO₂NPs on the physiological parameters of Brassica and their accumulation in plant tissues and (ii) to explore the underlying physiological/phenotypical effects that drive these specific changes in plant accumulation using Artificial Neural Network (ANN) as an alternative methodology to modeling and simulating plant uptake of Ce and Cd. The combinations of three cadmium levels (0 [control] and 0.25 and 1 mg/kg of dry soil) and two CeO₂NPs concentrations (0 [control] and 500 mg/kg of dry soil) were investigated. The results showed high interactions of co-existing CeO₂NPs and Cd on plant uptake of these metal elements and their interactive effects on plant physiology. ANN also identified key physiological factors affecting plant uptake of co-occurring Cd and CeO₂NPs. Specifically, the results showed that root fresh weight and the net photosynthesis rate are parameters governing Ce uptake in plant leaves and roots while root fresh weight and Fᵥ/Fₘ ratio are parameters affecting Cd uptake in leaves and roots. Overall, ANN is a capable approach to model plant uptake of co-occurring CeO₂NPs and Cd.
Show more [+] Less [-]Research on air pollutant concentration prediction method based on self-adaptive neuro-fuzzy weighted extreme learning machine
2018
Li, Yongan | Jiang, Peng | She, Qingshan | Lin, Guang
In order to improve the prediction accuracy and real-time of the air pollutant concentration prediction, this paper proposes self-adaptive neuro-fuzzy weighted extreme learning machine (ANFIS-WELM) based on the weighted extreme learning machine (WELM) and the adaptive neuro-fuzzy inference system (ANFIS) combined air pollutant concentration prediction method. Firstly, Gaussian membership function parameters are selected to fuzzify the input values and calculate the membership degree of each input variable. Secondly, corresponding fuzzy rules are activated, and the firing strength is normalized to calculate the output matrix of hidden nodes. Then, the optimal parameters (C, M), weights are assigned to weighted ELM by using locally weighted linear regression, and the regularized WELM target formula with equality constraint is optimized by the Karush–Kuhn–Tucker (KKT) conditions, the output weight matrix is calculated, and finally the prediction output matrix is calculated. Based on the air pollutant concentration data collected in Datong, Taiwan, the data on the pollutants containing carbon monoxide (CO), nitric oxide (NO), PM2.5 (particulate matter) and PM10, are selected by different historical time series lengths, using genetic algorithm-backpropagation neural network (GA-BPNN), support vector regression (SVR), extreme learning machine (ELM), WELM, ANFIS, regularized extreme learning adaptive neuro-fuzzy inference system (R-ELANFIS) and ANFIS-WELM are built for predict the concentration of each pollutant collected by single monitoring point in single-step time series. The experimental results show that the ANFIS-WELM presented in this paper has better prediction accuracy and real-time performance, realizes the prediction of multi-step time series on the basis of the ANFIS-WELM, and realizes the engineering application of the ANFIS-WELM algorithm package on the self-developed mobile source emissions online monitoring data center software system.
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