Modeling for Predicition of the Turnip Mosaic Virus (TuMV) Progress of Chinese Cabbage
1998
Ahn Jae-Hoon | Hahm Young-Il Alpine Agricultural Experiment Station, RDA, Pyongchang 232-950 (Korea Republic)
To develop a model for prediction of turnip mosaic virus(TuMV) disease progress of Chinese cabbage based on weather information and number of TuMV vector aphids trapped in Taegwallyeong alpine area, data were statistically processed together. As the variables influenced on TuMV disease progress, cumulative portion(CPT) above 13 degrees in daily average temperature was the most significant, and solar radiation, duration of sunshine, vector aphids and cumulative temperature above 0 degrees were significant. When logistic model and Gompertz model were compared by determining goodness of fit for TuMV disease progress using CPT as independent variable, regresion coefficient was higher in the logisitic model than in the Gompertz model. Epidemic parameters. apparent infection rate and initial value of logistic model, were estimated by examining the relationship between disease proportion linearized by logit transformation equation, In(Y/Y(f)-Y) and CPT. Models abale to describe the progression of TuMV disease were formulated in Y=100(1+128.4 . exp(-0.013 . CPT . (1-(1/(1+66.7 . exp(-0.11 . day)))))). Calculated disease progress from the model was in good agreement with investigated actual disease progress showing high significance of the coefficient of determination with 0.710.
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