Scenario planning to guide long-term investments in agricultural science and technology: theory and practice from a case study on India
van der Heijden, Kees | Rajalahti, Riikka | Janssen, Willem | Pehu, Eija
A number of changes worldwide are taking place that have implications for the rural and agricultural sector. Population growth, improved incomes, and shifting dietary patterns continue to increase and diversify the demand for food and other agricultural products. Agriculture is increasingly market and private sector driven. At the same time, the natural resource base underpinning agricultural production is under threat (Rajalahti and others 2005). Typically, many important decisions about how, when, and where to act are based on our expectations for future events and needs. However, when the world is highly unpredictable and we are working from a limited range of expectations and knowledge, our expectations and interventions may be proved wrong (Peterson and others 2002). In agriculture, revolutionary advances in biological and information sciences offer great potential to address these new demands and resource constraints. However, making research benefits available to small-scale farmers is a challenge. International trade is increasing rapidly, bringing with it new challenges for farmers to remain competitive and for governments to ensure the safety of agricultural value chains.
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