The Geopolitical Energy Security Evaluation Method and a China Case Application Based on Politics of Scale
2014
Zhiding Hu | Yuejing Ge
Combining the theories of politics of scale from political geography, security theory from international relations, and energy security theory, and putting the scale conversion of energy contention, geographical relationship and geo-structure in geo-setting, and the three properties of safety in consideration, this paper rebuilds a geo-energy security evaluation model and uses the model to quantitatively evaluate China’s geo-oil energy security in the Russian Pacific oil pipeline construction from 1995 to 2010. Five results could be drawn as follows: (1) from the aspect of time, an up-surging Geo-oil Safety Index of China in the Russian Pacific oil pipeline construction indicated an increasingly disadvantage of China in the geo-oil contention by politics of scale. If the United States and South Korea are involved, the competition would be further intensified: (2) from the aspect of geopolitical relationship, a general decrease occurred in the Sino-Japan Energy Competition Index, but a specific increase appeared in the competition of energy imports from Russia, by China and Japan individually: (3) from the aspect of regional strategy of energy export, an obvious downward tendency in Energy Export Strategy Index showed that Russia has changed its export destination off of Europe: (4) from the aspect of geo-security, a relatively steady proportion of China’s oil consumption, and a friendly comprehensive strategic partnership of cooperation between China and Russia, reduced the worries of China’s geo-oil energy security to some extent: (5) from the aspect of geopolitical structure, the increasing comprehensive national power in China, driven by rapid economic growth, will intensify the geo-oil competition in Northeast Asia.
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