Four-dimensional evaluation and forecasting of marine carrying capacity in China: Empirical analysis based on the entropy method and grey Verhulst model
2020
Tian, Renqu | Shao, Qinglong | Wu, Fenglan
This study separates marine carrying capacity into four key dimensions, i.e., social, economic, resource, and ecological, and uses the entropy method to evaluate the carrying capacity of China's 11 coastal regions during the period 2007–2016. We then predict the values of marine carrying capacity in the subsequent five years (2017–2021) using the grey Verhulst model. Results reveal a significant disparity in marine carrying capacity among the 11 coastal regions of China, and social and ecological carrying capacities illustrate among the four subcategories. Pearl River Delta in the south has the highest marine carrying capacity value and shows an increasing trend, while Yangtze River Delta and Bohai Rim Region in the north are stable. With regard to the predicted values for 2017–2021, forecasting results illustrate that the industrial structure of China's coastal areas is gradually turning towards the mode of diversified and comprehensive utilization of marine resources.
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