Water quality prediction based on recurrent neural network and improved evidence theory: a case study of Qiantang River, China

Water quality prediction is an effective method for managing and protecting water resources by providing an early warning against water quality deterioration. In general, the existing water quality prediction methods are based on a single shallow model which fails to capture the long-term dependence in historical time series and is more likely to cause a high rate of false alarms and false negatives in practical water monitoring application. To resolve these problems, a new model combining recurrent neural network (RNN) with improved Dempster/Shafer (D-S) evidence theory (RNNs-DS) is proposed in this paper. Among them, the RNNs which can handle the long-term dependence in historical time series effectively are used to realize the preliminary prediction of water quality. And the improved D-S evidence theory is used to synthesize the prediction results of RNNs. In addition, an improved strategy based on correlation analysis method is presented for evidence theory to obtain the number of evidence, which reduces uncertainty in evidence selection effectively. Besides, a new basic probability assignment function which based on modified softmax function is proposed. The new function can effectively solve the problems of weight allocation failure in the traditional function. Then, data about permanganate index, pH, total phosphorus, and dissolved oxygen from Jiuxishuichang monitoring station near Qiantang River, Zhejiang Province, China is used to verify the proposed model. Compared with support vector regression (SVR) and backpropagation neural network (BPNN) and three RNN models, the new model shows higher accuracy and better stability as indicated by four indices. Finally, the engineering application of the RNNs-DS algorithm has been realized on the self-developed water environmental monitoring and forecasting system, which can provide effective support for early risk assessment and prevention in water environment.