PM2.5 exposure as a risk factor for multiple sclerosis. An ecological study with a Bayesian mapping approach

Bergamaschi, Roberto; Monti, Maria Cristina; Trivelli, Leonardo; Mallucci, Giulia; Gerosa, Leonardo; Pisoni, Enrico; Montomoli, Cristina

PM2.5 exposure as a risk factor for multiple sclerosis. An ecological study with a Bayesian mapping approach

2021

Some environmental factors are associated with an increased risk of multiple sclerosis (MS). Air pollution could be a main one. This study was conducted to investigate the association of particulate matter 2.5 (PM₂.₅) concentrations with MS prevalence in the province of Pavia, Italy. The overall MS prevalence in the province of Pavia is 169.4 per 100,000 inhabitants. Spatial ground-level PM₂.₅ gridded data were analysed, by municipality, for the period 2010–2016. Municipalities were grouped by tertiles according to PM₂.₅ concentration. Ecological regression and Bayesian statistics were used to analyse the association between PM₂.₅ concentrations, degree of urbanization, deprivation index and MS risk. MS risk was higher among persons living in areas with an average winter PM₂.₅ concentration above the European annual limit value (25 μg/m³). The Bayesian map revealed sizeable MS high-risk clusters. The study found a relationship between low MS risk and lower PM₂.₅ levels, strengthening the suggestion that air pollution may be one of the environmental risk factors for MS.

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