On the Recovery of the Water Balance
2020
Varotsos, Costas A. | Krapivin, Vladimir F. | Mkrtchyan, Ferdenant A.
Climate scenarios for future global warming expect the enhancement of the hydrological cycle during the twenty-first century. In particular, accurate simulation of water content in the soil depends not only on the correct determination of the percentages of each component in the water balance but also on the measured biophysical properties of the soil available. One of the greatest man-made environmental disasters in history is the destruction of the Aral Sea which is heavily polluted. Possible scenarios have been formulated, to transfer water from the Siberian rivers to Central Asia and to limit the unsustainable extension of irrigation in this region. A new scenario proposed in this paper is partly based on the use of Caspian water evaporators located on the eastern coast of the Caspian Sea. The implementation of this scenario allows the rescue of the Aral Sea and the normalization of water balance in Central Asia. The results of the calculations show that the Aral Sea can be restored over the next 90–240 years depending on these versions. If the anthropogenic outflow of river water is further reduced by 10%, the Aral Sea will be restored for about 90 years. Finally, possible versions of the water recovery scenario are discussed and evaluated and compared with other examples such as Lake Eyre in Australia, Lake Sevan in Armenia, and Lake Chad in central Africa.
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