How might China achieve its 2020 emissions target? A scenario analysis of energy consumption and CO2 emissions using the system dynamics model

According to the Chinese government's CO2 reduction commitment, the production and consumption of traditional and renewable energy in China from 2001 to 2012, this paper forecasts the energy consumption, gross CO2 emissions and CO2 emission intensity in China from 2013 to 2020 via system dynamics simulation. Coupled with the energy system and renewable energy policy factors, the effects of different economic growth rates and policy factors on the energy consumption were estimated. The results showed that in different economic growth rates scenarios, total energy consumption and CO2 emissions increased by 36,140.75 kWh and more than 10,000 billion kg in 10% GDP growth rate scenario than in the 7% scenario in 2020. The CO2 emission per GDP decreased by 52% in 2020 as compared to 2005 under the scenario of 10% GDP growth rate. Under different renewable energy policy factors' scenarios, the coal energy consumption decreased by 2.3% in scenario of 5% policy factor as compared to 1% policy factor scenario. The CO2 emissions reduced by 3321.94 billion kg in 2020 under the scenario of 5% policy factor as compared to that in the scenario of 1% policy factor. The CO2 emission per GDP reduced by 47–50% based on the 2005 level in different scenarios of renewable energy policies. We found that with an increase in GDP, total energy consumption and CO2 emissions increased in the base scenario. Higher economic growth rates led to an increase in energy consumption, including both the traditional and renewable energy resources. In stark contrast to total CO2 emission, however, CO2 emission intensity decreased with an increase in economic growth rate. The renewable energy policy improved the renewable energy development, reduced CO2 emissions and CO2 emission intensity. It was more effective in energy saving and CO2 reduction than the high growth rate scenarios. The results indicated that China is highly likely to achieve its CO2 emission reduction goal under different simulated scenarios. Besides, the energy distribution was similar in different scenarios. Coal was the major energy source which amounted to more than 70% of the total energy consumption. Finally, we conclude with important policy implications according to our simulations results.