Spatio-Temporal Matching and Nexus of Water–Energy–Food in the Yellow River Basin over the Last Two Decades

There is an important practical significance to understanding and evaluating the nexus of water, energy, and food (WEF) for ensuring regional security. The Yellow River Basin is a typical area displaying the contradiction between water, energy, and food development caused by the difference in resource distribution and production attributes. The nexus of the WEF system in the Yellow River Basin is systematically and innovatively studied from different perspectives. The aim of the research is to analyze the distribution and transfer direction of single resource elements, the matching and evolution of two kinds of resources linked by water resources, and finally the nexus based on Copula function. The results show that water resources, farmland, and energy production are concentrated in different areas, while the center of gravity shifted to the northwest, northeast, and west of the basin, respectively. For the resource balance of energy production and available industrial water resources, the matching degree has become worse in recent years. For the resource balance of farmland areas and available agricultural water resources, the matching degree in the most source area and middle reaches has improved, but the gap among different sub-regions has widened slightly. It is proven that the three-dimensional t Copula is well characterized by the nexus of the WEF system in the Yellow River Basin. The joint not exceeding the probability of the WEF (W ≤ 7.08 × 10¹⁰ m³, E ≤ 6.24 × 10⁸ TCE, F ≤ 4.23 × 10⁷ t) is about 0.3–0.4. The WEF system in the Yellow River Basin (Gₙ = 0.728 and 0.688) may still have certain security risks in the future compared with other regions in the world, which needs to be regulated by more reasonable policies. This study can provide a theoretical basis for ensuring regional water, energy, and food security.