Providing Scenarios For The Development Resilience Tourism Based On The Local Community With A Furfures Studies Approach: A Study Of Fereydunkenar International Wetland

Today, tourism development in many developing countries is one of the effective ways for economic and social development of rural areas, but due to the important role of this industry in the development of urban and rural areas, there are always obstacles and problems that hinder sustainable development. It becomes. Fereydunkenar International Wetland, which has a high tourism potential due to the return of thousands of migratory birds from northern orbits to the region, is managed by the local community in terms of ecosystem services. Unbalanced utilization of ecosystem services of Fereydunkenar International Wetland, without awareness of renewable potential and thresholds, changes the state of the ecosystem. To achieve sustainable and resilient tourism in the study area, descriptive-analytical, documentary and questionnaire studies were used in the scenario planning framework. In this study, first the variables and factors affecting tourism resilience were identified using Litrature review as well as the views of experts, which is in the form of environmental analysis. After identifying the variables, the Impact Analysis Matrix Questionnaire was distributed among academic elites who had sufficient expertise and experience in wetland tourism issues, and it was asked to determine the variables based on the degree of impact and effectiveness in the framework of the matrix of cross-effects. The scores were then entered into a crossover effect matrix to measure the impact and effectiveness (direct and indirect) of each of the factors and their sub-variables with other factors, and to obtain the necessary graphs by identifying the key driving forces; Also, after identifying the key driving forces, by entering them in the MicMac software, scenarios compatible with sustainable and resilient tourism of the wetland in the framework of 11 factors and 4 possible states imagined in a range from the most desirable to the most undesirable situation. In the framework of risk scenarios, purpose and system were presented. The extraction of relevant patterns indicates the instability of the system under study, the main factor of which is beyond the institutionalized notion of the three basic pillars of sustainable development rooted in institutional development. In other words, the lack of a specific framework to reach an institutional setting is the most important factor stabilizing tourism activities in the study area.