Modelling the impact of climate change and atmospheric N deposition on french forests biodiversity
2015
Rizzetto, Simon | Belyazid, Salim | Gégout, Jean-Claude | Nicolas, Manuel | Alard, Didier | Corcket, Emmanuel | Gaudio, Noémie | Sverdrup, Harald | Probst, Anne | Ecotoxicologie & Santé des écosystèmes - ECSECO (ECI) ; Laboratoire Ecologie Fonctionnelle et Environnement (LEFE) ; Institut Ecologie et Environnement - CNRS Ecologie et Environnement (INEE-CNRS) ; Centre National de la Recherche Scientifique (CNRS)-Centre National de la Recherche Scientifique (CNRS)-Université Toulouse III - Paul Sabatier (UT3) ; Université de Toulouse (UT)-Université de Toulouse (UT)-Observatoire Midi-Pyrénées (OMP) ; Institut de Recherche pour le Développement (IRD)-Université Toulouse III - Paul Sabatier (UT3) ; Université de Toulouse (UT)-Université de Toulouse (UT)-Institut national des sciences de l'Univers (INSU - CNRS)-Centre National d'Études Spatiales [Toulouse] (CNES)-Centre National de la Recherche Scientifique (CNRS)-Météo-France-Institut de Recherche pour le Développement (IRD)-Institut national des sciences de l'Univers (INSU - CNRS)-Centre National d'Études Spatiales [Toulouse] (CNES)-Centre National de la Recherche Scientifique (CNRS)-Météo-France-Centre National de la Recherche Scientifique (CNRS)-Institut National Polytechnique (Toulouse) (Toulouse INP) ; Université de Toulouse (UT)-Institut Ecologie et Environnement - CNRS Ecologie et Environnement (INEE-CNRS) ; Centre National de la Recherche Scientifique (CNRS)-Centre National de la Recherche Scientifique (CNRS)-Université Toulouse III - Paul Sabatier (UT3) ; Université de Toulouse (UT)-Université de Toulouse (UT)-Observatoire Midi-Pyrénées (OMP) ; Institut de Recherche pour le Développement (IRD)-Université Toulouse III - Paul Sabatier (UT3) ; Université de Toulouse (UT)-Université de Toulouse (UT)-Institut national des sciences de l'Univers (INSU - CNRS)-Centre National d'Études Spatiales [Toulouse] (CNES)-Centre National de la Recherche Scientifique (CNRS)-Météo-France-Institut de Recherche pour le Développement (IRD)-Institut national des sciences de l'Univers (INSU - CNRS)-Centre National d'Études Spatiales [Toulouse] (CNES)-Centre National de la Recherche Scientifique (CNRS)-Météo-France-Centre National de la Recherche Scientifique (CNRS)-Institut National Polytechnique (Toulouse) (Toulouse INP) ; Université de Toulouse (UT)-Institut National de la Recherche Agronomique (INRA) | Belyazid Consulting and Communication AB | Laboratoire d'Etudes des Ressources Forêt-Bois (LERFoB) ; Institut National de la Recherche Agronomique (INRA)-AgroParisTech | Office national des forêts (ONF) | Biodiversité, Gènes & Communautés (BioGeCo) ; Institut National de la Recherche Agronomique (INRA)-Université de Bordeaux (UB) | Skane University Hospital [Lund] | International Union of Forest Research Organisations (IUFRO). AUT.
Since the 1980’s, within the Geneva Convention on Long-Range Transboundary Air Pollution, European countries have joined their efforts to abate atmospheric acid pollution. Nevertheless, nitrogen emissions and depositions remain significant under ongoing climate change. Nitrogen atmospheric deposition is known to severely impact ecosystem functioning by influencing soil biogeochemistry, nutrients balance and, consequently, tree growth, forest health and biodiversity. The concept of “critical loads” was used and models were improved to mitigate the impacts of N deposition, by considering conjointly effects of climate change and N atmospheric deposition, to assess the evolution of forest ecosystem status over time. The purpose of this study is to predict forest vegetation response to the combine effects of nitrogen atmospheric deposition and climate change by using a dynamic coupled biogeochemical-ecological model (ForSAFE-Veg). The Veg module is composed of 476 understory plant species representative of the main French forest ecosystems, and parameterized for a set of environmental factors based on expert advices. In this study, we propose a new parameterization for six main factors using statistical regressions models based on measured data for about 4000 forest sites. After validation using another independent set of vegetation relevés, the biogeochemical model ForSAFE-Veg was run using the most appropriate Veg module, on three forest sites from the french ICP Forest network. Changes in biodiversity were estimated by analysing the evolution of plants cover over100 years, and considering the impacts of climate change and atmospheric nitrogen deposition scenarios separately and conjointly. The modelling outputs were considered at both species and ecological functional groups scales, to evaluate their relevance in characterizing nitrogen deposition influence on biodiversity. This will allow generalizing this approach to other species for which environmental factors are not easy to parameterize.
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