The first multi-model ensemble of regional climate simulations at kilometer-scale resolution, part I: Evaluation of precipitation

Here we present the first multi-model ensemble of regional climate simulations at kilometer-scale horizontal grid spacing over a decade long period. A total of 23 simulations run with a horizontal grid spacing of ∼ 3 km, driven by ERA-Interim reanalysis, and performed by 22 European research groups are analysed. Six different regional climate models (RCMs) are represented in the ensemble. The simulations are compared against available high-resolution precipitation observations and coarse resolution (∼ 12 km) RCMs with parameterized convection. The model simulations and observations are compared with respect to mean precipitation, precipitation intensity and frequency, and heavy precipitation on daily and hourly timescales in different seasons. The results show that kilometer-scale models produce a more realistic representation of precipitation than the coarse resolution RCMs. The most significant improvements are found for heavy precipitation and precipitation frequency on both daily and hourly time scales in the summer season. In general, kilometer-scale models tend to produce more intense precipitation and reduced wet-hour frequency compared to coarse resolution models. On average, the multi-model mean shows a reduction of bias from ∼ −40% at 12 km to ∼ −3% at 3 km for heavy hourly precipitation in summer. Furthermore, the uncertainty ranges i.e. the variability between the models for wet hour frequency is reduced by half with the use of kilometer-scale models. Although differences between the model simulations at the kilometer-scale and observations still exist, it is evident that these simulations are superior to the coarse-resolution RCM simulations in the representing precipitation in the present-day climate, and thus offer a promising way forward for investigations of climate and climate change at local to regional scales.

Fil: Ban, Nikolina. Universidad de Innsbruck; Austria

Fil: Caillaud, Cécile. Université de Toulouse; Francia

Fil: Coppola, Erika. The Abdus Salam. International Centre for Theoretical Physics; Italia. The Abdus Salam; Italia

Fil: Pichelli, Emanuela. The Abdus Salam; Italia. The Abdus Salam. International Centre for Theoretical Physics; Italia

Fil: Sobolowski, Stefan. Norwegian Research Centre; Noruega

Fil: Adinolfi, Marianna. Fondazione Centro Euro-Mediterraneo sui cambiamenti climatici; Italia

Fil: Ahrens, Bodo. Goethe Universitat Frankfurt; Alemania

Fil: Alias, Antoinette. Université de Toulouse; Francia

Fil: Anders, Ivonne. German Climate Computing Center; Alemania

Fil: Bastin, Sophie. Universite Paris-Saclay;

Fil: Belušić, Danijel. Swedish Meteorological and Hydrological Institute; Suiza

Fil: Berthou, Ségolène. Met Office Hadley Centre; Reino Unido

Fil: Brisson, Erwan. Université de Toulouse; Francia

Fil: Cardoso, Rita M.. Universidade Nova de Lisboa; Portugal

Fil: Chan, Steven C.. University of Newcastle; Reino Unido

Fil: Christensen, Ole Bøssing. Danish Meteorological Institute; Dinamarca

Fil: Fernández, Jesús. Universidad de Cantabria; España

Fil: Fita Borrell, Lluís. Consejo Nacional de Investigaciones Científicas y Técnicas. Oficina de Coordinación Administrativa Ciudad Universitaria. Centro de Investigaciones del Mar y la Atmósfera. Universidad de Buenos Aires. Facultad de Ciencias Exactas y Naturales. Centro de Investigaciones del Mar y la Atmósfera; Argentina. Instituto Franco-Argentino sobre Estudios del Clima y sus Impactos; Argentina

Fil: Frisius, Thomas. Helmholtz Gemeinschaft; Alemania

Fil: Gaparac, Goran. Croatia Control Ltd.; Croacia

Fil: Giorgi, Filippo. The Abdus Salam. International Centre for Theoretical Physics; Italia. The Abdus Salam; Italia

Fil: Goergen, Klaus. Centre for High-Performance Scientific Computing in Terrestrial Systems; Alemania. Helmholtz Gemeinschaft. Forschungszentrum Jülich; Alemania

Fil: Haugen, Jan Erik. Norwegian Meteorological Institute; Noruega

Fil: Hodnebrog, Øivind. Center for International Climate and Environmental Research-Oslo; Noruega

Fil: Kartsios, Stergios. Aristotle University Of Thessaloniki; Grecia

Fil: Katragkou, Eleni. Aristotle University Of Thessaloniki; Grecia

Fil: Kendon, Elizabeth J.. Met Office Hadley Centre; Reino Unido

Fil: Keuler, Klaus. Brandenburg University of Technology Cottbus-Senftenberg; Alemania

Fil: Lavin Gullon, Alvaro. Universidad de Cantabria; España

Fil: Lenderink, Geert. Royal Netherlands Meteorological Institute; Países Bajos