Freight Transport Decarbonization: How Policy and Logistics Trends Affect Achievement of Climate Objectives

The transport sector is a major and growing contributor to climate change, requiring large and rapid emissions cuts to keep 1.5ºC global warming pathways within reach. Indeed, transport is attributed a prominent role in emissions reductions by policymakers around the world, and particularly towards 2030 targets. Within transport, freight (and particularly road freight) are increasingly important segments, but underrepresented in research, climate action, and government strategies. Freight transport is also considered particularly challenging to decarbonize, with high forecasted demand increases only adding to this problem. Building on five research articles, this thesis discusses how changes in framework conditions for freight transport can contribute to or inhibit achieving climate objectives for transport. Although focus is on the Norwegian case and changes stemming from policy (design) and logistics trends with Norwegian relevance, the nature of the freight decarbonization challenge makes that many insights and observations will be relevant also for other countries. I set out discussing theoretical frameworks for transport decarbonization, which I summarize into five veins: Demand intensity, Transport intensity, Modal split, Energy intensity and Energy’s carbon intensity. Both between these veins and in time, there are trade-offs, dynamics and feedback effects. In practice, policymaker narratives particularly feature modal shift and technology veins (alternative technology vehicles, lower-carbon fuels and technical fuel efficiency improvements), while the first two veins discussed above, receive much less policy attention. Focusing on Norway, political discourse has made emissions cuts from transport essential, with freight being assigned an important role. Here, particular emphasis is placed on the phase-in of zero-emission heavy-duty vehicles, increased use of biofuels, and modal shift. This is reflected in the topics of my research articles, which is also illustrated through an intuitive overview figure in the thesis. The first article finds that a CO2-fund scheme (refunding of diesel levies through subsidies to alternative technologies) can contribute to increasing zero-emission vehicles’ market share, although dynamics and the size of emissions cuts are highly dependent on technology choices made for the fund. In the Electric Truck article, we discuss how experiences from early Norwegian pilots with battery-electric trucks have largely been promising, with some exceptions. Use patterns for light distribution trucks indicate that in the short term (from 2019), electrification potential is limited to parts of some fleet sub-segments, but that in a longer run, relatively modest driving range improvements could considerably increase electrification potential. Cost competitiveness versus diesel distribution trucks is first attained when battery-electric trucks reach mass production. Hydrogen-electric trucks can become cost competitive versus diesel in a longer term, but likely retain higher ownership costs than battery-electric trucks (making them more suitable for operations where battery-electric trucks have particular disadvantages, such as long-haul transport). Socio-economic costs of phasing in zero-emission vehicles are found to initially be highest for hydrogen-electric vehicles and lowest for biogas, but fall considerably towards mass production stages of battery-/hydrogen-electric trucks. These findings all have implications for choices of technological solutions to focus efforts on. For example, there are trade-offs and dynamics between larger, faster emissions reductions from biofuels, biofuel availability, reversibility of emissions cuts, flexibility, risks of policy lock-ins, private and social costs, timely establishment of charging/filling infrastructure, and the speeding up of technology development, production and market maturity of electric vehicles. The latter two aspects are particularly important for operational suitability and competitiveness, which are both (partially) presupposed in Norwegian transport-environmental targets. In all, incentive schemes, charging solutions, policy facilitation, and technological developments will likely remain important aspects in the years to come. With regard to modal shift, we assessed transport and environmental effects of strengthening, expanding, combining and harmonizing policy measures across Nordic borders, and of warehouse suburbanization trends (articles 3 and 4). Main findings include that even with strong policy measures for modal shift, reductions in Norwegian CO2 emissions are limited, and that harmonizing/combining measures in some cases, but not all, can give rise to (limited) effectiveness synergies. Warehouse relocationing trends, in turn, may in fact move more freight towards road transport (although effects are small) and may further increase traffic and emissions particularly in the urban region, depending on case-specific trade patterns and relative geographical locations. In all, modal shift will at best be a moderate contributor to freight decarbonization, while active land use planning and curtailing transport demand might warrant more focus than is currently the case. The above results indicate that it will take time before emissions reductions for freight transport can really become substantial. Through the last article, we therefore investigated potential shorter-term emissions reductions through improved driving behavior among truck drivers (eco-driving). Focus was on the potential for fuel savings, the persistence and reinforcement of eco-driving behavior, and the relative importance of different eco-driving factors. Findings indicate that eco-driving training can yield fuel savings of 5.2-9% for truck drivers and that active follow-ups of eco-driving training and non-monetary rewards might strengthen persistence of effects, where these otherwise tend to fade or disappear. Of different eco-driving factors, improvements in engine/gear handling seem most important. In all, eco-driving may be a way of achieving rapid, scalable and low-costs emissions reductions from freight vehicles in the period up to large-scale freight transport electrification. On the whole, discussions in this thesis illustrate that achieving Norwegian climate objectives for transport will be challenging, particularly through freight transport. It will likely require combinations of strong efforts, both through different decarbonization veins and at different points in time. This thesis contributes to a better understanding of ways in which changes in framework conditions affect emissions reductions, into a variety of dynamics between policy, transport and environmental effects, and into (strengthening) the effectiveness of freight decarbonization approaches. It also provides perspectives on the size and urgency of the challenge, and deviations between policy narratives and achievements and potential emissions reductions in practice. However, a main inhibitor to emissions reductions from transport in general, and freight transport in particular, remains the high projected increase in transport demand – both in Norway and in other countries. Unless this trend is reversed, the implication is that decarbonization through other veins needs to be even stronger to achieve climate objectives.

Doktorgradsavhandling