Exploring Land Use Management Strategies through Morphological Spatial Patterns Using a Climate–Socioeconomic-Based Land Use Simulation Modeling Framework

Facing future complex climate changes and global economic fluctuations, land use and land cover (LULC) simulation is recognized as an important initiative to support government decision-making. In this study, a comprehensive LULC simulation modeling framework was proposed based on the PLUS and InVEST models. The Kinki metropolis in Japan was chosen as a case to simulate future LULC changes under four SSP–RCP (126, 245, 370, and 585) scenarios, and to calculate carbon storage (CS) from 2040 to 2100. The results show that cultivated land will decrease while forests will increase, except under scenario SSP585. The artificial surface will increase except under SSP370. The CS changes are significantly correlated with forest area changes. Furthermore, this study highlights the significance of analyzing and discussing future LULCs under wide-area planning. Spatial pattern, morphological spatial pattern analysis (MSPA), and Pearson correlation analysis were used to explore the characteristics of the LULC types. The results reveal that the prefectures within the Kinki metropolitan area can be classified into three groups based on the spatial pattern indices change of the artificial surface. Most cultivated land is concentrated in important patches and corridors (area larger than 40,000 m²), accounting for over 90% of the total area, while the number is less than 25%. Forests will become more aggregated, and different MSPA classes will have varying impacts on CS changes. This study comprehensively analyzed and validated the feasibility of the simulation results from different LULC perspectives, comparing the similarities and differences in the development of prefectures. Additionally, this research provides a comprehensive framework for integrating simulated LULC types with policy discussions to better guide LULC planning and policy formulation in metropolitan Kinki.