Interpreting Differential Temperature Trends at the Surface and in the Lower Troposphere
2000
Santer, B. D. | Wigley, T. M. L. | Gaffen, D. J. | Bengtsson, Lennart | Doutriaux, C. | Boyle, J. S. | Esch, M. | Hnilo, J. J. | Jones, P. D. | Meehl, G. A. | Roeckner, E. | Taylor, K. E. | Wehner, M. F.
Estimated global-scale temperature trends at Earth's surface (as recorded by thermometers) and in the lower troposphere (as monitored by satellites) diverge by up to 0.14°C per decade over the period 1979 to 1998. Accounting for differences in the spatial coverage of satellite and surface measurements reduces this differential, but still leaves a statistically significant residual of roughly 0.1°C per decade. Natural internal climate variability alone, as simulated in three state-of-the-art coupled atmosphere-ocean models, cannot completely explain this residual trend difference. A model forced by a combination of anthropogenic factors and volcanic aerosols yields surface-troposphere temperature trend differences closest to those observed.
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