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Modelling the Effect of Temperature Increments on Wildfires
2022
Sadat Razavi, Amir Hossein | Shafiepour Motlagh, Majid | Noorpoor, Alireza | Ehsani, Amir Houshang
Global fire cases in recent years and their vast damages are vivid reasons to study the wildfires more deeply. A 25-year period natural wildfire database and a wide array of environmental variables are used in this study to develop an artificial neural network model with the aim of predicting potential fire spots. This study focuses on non-human reasons of wildfires (natural) to compute global warming effects on wildfires. Among the environmental variables, this study shows the significance of temperature for predicting wildfire cases while other parameters are presented in a next study. The study area of this study includes all natural forest fire cases in United States from 1992 to 2015. The data of eight days including the day fire occurred and 7 previous days are used as input to the model to forecast fire occurrence probability of that day. The climatic inputs are extracted from ECMWF. The inputs of the model are temperature at 2 meter above surface, relative humidity, total pressure, evaporation, volumetric soil water layer, snow melt, Keetch–Byram drought index, total precipitation, wind speed, and NDVI. The results show there is a transient temperature span for each forest type which acts like a threshold to predict fire occurrence. In temperate forests, a 0.1-degree Celsius increase in temperature relative to 7-day average temperature before a fire occurrence results in prediction model output of greater than 0.8 for 4.75% of fire forest cases. In Boreal forests, the model output for temperature increase of less than 1 degree relative to past 7-day average temperature represents no chance of wildfire. But the non-zero fire forest starts at 2 degrees increase of temperature which ends to 2.62% of fire forest cases with model output of larger than 0.8. It is concluded that other variables except temperature are more determinant to predict wildfires in temperate forests rather than in boreal forests.
Mostrar más [+] Menos [-]Impressions of Coastal Communities on Climate Change and Livelihood: A Case Study of Coastal Maharashtra, India
2022
Ravi Sharma, Shrishti Jagtap | Prakash Rao
The socio-economic and institutional systems of a developing country like India have a big role in the effects of perception on the choice of adapting capability. The study uses exploratory factor analysis to better understand these implications in a regional context (EFA). Therefore, survey research is carried out in Sindhudurg district of coastal Maharashtra, with 410 respondents, assessing perception. EFA leads to the unpacking of latent constructs evaluating the perception of climate change, which in turn affects adaptive capacity and livelihood resilience. These constructs are biophysical impact cognition, motivation to change, economic diversification, and adaptive skills, which together account for 50% of coastal fishermen’s perception of climate change. Multivariate analysis of variance (MANOVA) revealed differences in the interpretation of these factors among coastal fishermen from various backgrounds (MANOVA). Overall, the research emphasizes the importance of perception in determining adaptive choices and resilience. According to the findings, developing adaptation-friendly infrastructural areas is recommended for society’s resilient functioning.
Mostrar más [+] Menos [-]Nexus between potentially toxic elements’ accumulation and seasonal/anthropogenic influences on mangrove sediments and ecological risk in Sundarbans, Bangladesh: An approach from GIS, self-organizing map, conditional inference tree and random forest models
2022
Hossain Bhuiyan, Mohammad Amir | Chandra Karmaker, Shamal | Saha, Bidyut Baran
Mangroves play a vital role in protecting the coastal community from the climate change effect and in the restoration of the coastal ecosystem. This research has been designed to determine the spatial and seasonal changes of potentially toxic elements’ (PTEs) concentration in sediments and their potential source contribution among the different human-driven processes in Sundarbans, Bangladesh. Different pollution evaluation indices, random forest (RF) model, conditional inference tree (CIT), self-organizing map (SOM), geographical information system (GIS), and principal component analysis (PCA) were used for the interpretation of sources and risk assessment of PTEs. The mean concentration of PTEs both in winter and monsoon seasons has fallen below the threshold effect level but exceeded the rare effect level of marine sediments quality standards. Results showed that the PTEs were significantly enriched (EF > 1.00 < 70.00) in sediments, whereas the Cd enrichment (7.00% samples) was very alarming (EF = 60–70). Except for Zn and Cd, other PTEs were enriched in 30–60% samples. The highest geoaccumulation and contamination factors for Cd were observed in 46–72% of samples. The ecological risk (ER) factors showed similar results where Cd showed strong to very strong factors (ER = 110–2218) in 80% of samples. The CIT explained the natural/geogenic and anthropogenic sources of pollution, where the higher CIT values for Cd indicated industrial, aquaculture, and coal-based thermal powerplant. The RF model provided that shrimp firms, power plants, industry, and seaport were recognized as the influential sources for Zn, Pb, Cr, Cd, and As in sediments. Though Pb and As were found as the most significant pollutants, Cd was identified as a severe threat to ecology and public health. Based on CIT, RF, SOM and PCA the order of PTEs in mangroves sediment were:industrial/urban > aquaculture/shrimpfirm > powerplant > seaportoperation > tourism > geogenic/natural. The present study will help the policymakers for effective and sustainable management of the mangrove ecosystem.
Mostrar más [+] Menos [-]Integrated biotechnology to mitigate green tides
2022
Ren, Cheng-Gang | Liu, Zheng-Yi | Zhong, Zhi-Hai | Wang, Xiao-Li | Qin, Song
Around the world, green tides are happening with increasing frequency because of the dual effects of increasingly intense human activity and climate change; this leads to significant impacts on marine ecology and economies. In the last decade, the world's largest green tide, which is formed by Ulva/Enteromorpha porifera, has become a recurrent phenomenon every year in the southern Yellow Sea (China), and it has been getting worse. To alleviate the impacts of such green tide outbreaks, multiple measures need to be developed. Among these approaches, biotechnology plays important roles in revealing the outbreak mechanism (e.g., molecular identification technology for algal genotypes), controlling and preventing outbreaks at the origin sites (e.g., technology to inhibit propagation), and utilizing valuable algal biomass. This review focuses on the various previously used biotechnological approaches that may be applicable to worldwide seaweed blooms that result from global climate change and environmental degradation.
Mostrar más [+] Menos [-]Assessing the emission consequences of an energy rebound effect in private cars in Israel
2022
Steren, Aviv | Rosenzweig, Stav | Rubin, Ofir D.
The UN Sustainable Development Goal, SDG 7.3, is to double the global rate of improvement in energy efficiency by 2030. To meet this and other energy targets, countries encourage the development and adoption of energy-efficient products. An extensively researched phenomenon in this context is the energy rebound effect, especially in transportation. However, the direct relationship between the energy rebound effect and car emission levels has barely been investigated. Understanding this relationship is important, because energy-related emissions are closely linked to mortality, morbidity, and climate change. We assess the emission consequences in the private car market in Israel of a rebound effect associated with a policy promoting energy-efficient cars. We find that the baseline rebound before introduction of the policy was 40%. In the following three periods marked by policy changes, it grew to 54%, 69%, and 88%. Using household data with specific car characteristics and usage, we calculate the added greenhouse gas (GHG) emission consequences of this rebound by the end of the studied period to be about 5% of the country's per-capita target. Notably, estimates for the emission consequences using “average car” values were almost twice as high. The reason for this gap derives from the co-dependance between car usage and car efficiency. We discuss the implications of this gap in meeting emission goals.
Mostrar más [+] Menos [-]Global PBDE contamination in cetaceans. A critical review
2022
Bartalini, Alice | Muñoz-Arnanz, Juan | García-Álvarez, Natalia | Fernández, Antonio | Jiménez, Begoña
This review summarizes the most relevant information on PBDEs’ occurrence and their impacts in cetaceans at global scale, with special attention on the species with the highest reported levels and therefore the most potentially impacted by the current and continuous release of these substances. This review also emphasizes the anthropogenic and environmental factors that could increase concentrations and associated risks for these species in the next future. High PBDE concentrations above the toxicity threshold and stationary trends have been related to continuous import of PBDE-containing products in cetaceans of Brazil and Australia, where PBDEs have never been produced. Non-decreasing levels documented in cetaceans from the Northwest Pacific Ocean might be linked to the increased e-waste import and ongoing production and use of deca-BDE that is still allowed in China. Moreover, high levels of PBDEs in some endangered species such as beluga whales (Delphinapterus leucas) in St. Lawrence Estuary and Southern Resident killer whales (Orcinus Orca) are influenced by the discharge of contaminated waters deriving from wastewater treatment plants. Climate change related processes such as enhanced long-range transport, re-emissions from secondary sources and shifts in migration habits could lead to greater exposure and accumulation of PBDEs in cetaceans, above all in those species living in the Arctic. In addition, increased rainfall could carry greater amount of contaminants to the marine environment, thereby, enhancing the exposure and accumulation especially for coastal species. Synergic effects of all these factors and ongoing emissions of PBDEs, expected to continue at least until 2050, could increase the degree of exposure and menace for cetacean populations. In this regard, it is necessary to improve current regulations on PBDEs and broader the knowledge about their toxicological effects, in order to assess health risks and support regulatory protection for cetacean species.
Mostrar más [+] Menos [-]Attributed radiative forcing of air pollutants from biomass and fossil burning emissions
2022
Jiang, Ke | Fu, Bo | Luo, Zhihan | Xiong, Rui | Men, Yatai | Shen, Huizhong | Li, Bengang | Shen, Guofeng | Tao, Shu
Energy is vital to human society but significantly contributes to the deterioration of environmental quality and the global issue of climate change. Biomass and fossil fuels are important energy sources but have distinct pollutant emission characteristics during the burning process. This study aimed at attributing radiative forcing of climate forcers, including greenhouse gases but also short-lived climate pollutants, from the burning of fossil and biomass fuels, and the spatiotemporal characteristics. We found that air pollutant emissions from the burning process of biofuel and fossil fuels induced RFs of 68.2 ± 36.8 mW m⁻² and 840 ± 225 mW m⁻², respectively. The relatively contribution of biomass burning emissions was 7.6% of that from both fossil and biofuel combustion processes, while its contribution in energy supply was 11%. These relative contributions varied obviously across different regions. The per unit energy consumption of biomass fuel in the developed regions, such as North America (0.57 ± 0.33 mW m⁻²/10⁷TJ) and Western Europe (0.98 ± 0.79 mW m⁻²/10⁷TJ), had higher impacts of combustion emission related RFs compared to that of developing regions, like China (0.40 ± 0.26 mW m⁻²/10⁷TJ), and South and South-East Asia (0.31 ± 0.71 mW m⁻²/10⁷TJ) where low efficiency biomass burning in residential sector produced significant amounts of organic matter that had a cooling effect. Note that the study only evaluated fuel combustion emission related RFs, and those associated with the production of fuels and land use change should be studied later in promoting a comprehensive understanding on the climate impacts of biomass utilization.
Mostrar más [+] Menos [-]Accumulation characteristic of nitrogen in reservoirs during the ice-covered period under superimposed influence of ice and sediments: A case study of Biliuhe reservoir
2022
Hu, Suduan | Wang, Tianxiang | Xu, Shiguo | Ma, Lingxiao | Wang, Tianzi | Sun, Ya
Reservoirs located in middle and high latitudes freeze for months in winter, where the accumulation characteristics of pollutants are changed by superimposed influence of salt exclusion from ice on the surface and pollution release from sediments at the bottom. Taking total nitrogen (TN) of Biliuhe reservoir in Northeast China as an example, we developed a model to simulate TN accumulation characteristics influenced by ice and sediments during the freezing period (NACISF), and quantified contributions of TN from ice and sediments. Model parameters of ice and sediments were determined by laboratory freeze-up simulation experiment and sediment release flux simulation experiment, and water quality data were obtained from field investigations. Results showed that the annual average amount of TN input during the ice-covered period from 2015 to 2020 was 220.77 t, the output was 400.11 t, and the accumulated amount was 589.52 t. TN excluded from ice and released from sediments contributed 8.12% and 7.17% of the total TN inputs in winter, respectively. Analysis showed that the TN excluded from ice was positively correlated with ice thickness and initial TN concentration. The maximum ice thickness of Biliuhe reservoir had a 13 year cyclic feature, and the proportion of TN excluded from ice to the total TN inputs in different periods ranged from 10.68% to 17.30% (mean 13.18%). Meanwhile, TN accumulated seasonally as summer > autumn > winter > spring. The TN exclusion effect in 2050 would be weakened when considering the combined effects of climate change and human activities, with a reduction of about 40.85% compared to the current. It is concluded that the NACISF model took into account the influences of both ice and sediments, which provided a detailed understanding of the accumulation characteristics of TN during freezing period, and had important reference significance for water quality management in winter.
Mostrar más [+] Menos [-]Mercury biomagnification in an Antarctic food web of the Antarctic Peninsula
2022
Matias, Ricardo S. | Guímaro, Hugo R. | Bustamante, Paco | Seco, José | Chipev, N. | Fragão, Joana | Tavares, Sílvia | Ceia, Filipe R. | Pereira, Maria E. | Barbosa, Andrés | Xavier, José C.
Under the climate change context, warming Southern Ocean waters may allow mercury (Hg) to become more bioavailable to the Antarctic marine food web (i.e., ice-stored Hg release and higher methylation rates by microorganisms), whose biomagnification processes are poorly documented. Biomagnification of Hg in the food web of the Antarctic Peninsula, one of the world's fastest-warming regions, was examined using carbon (δ¹³C) and nitrogen (δ¹⁵N) stable isotope ratios for estimating feeding habitat and trophic levels, respectively. The stable isotope signatures and total Hg (T-Hg) concentrations were measured in Antarctic krill Euphausia superba and several Antarctic predator species, including seabirds (gentoo penguins Pygoscelis papua, chinstrap penguins Pygoscelis antarcticus, brown skuas Stercorarius antarcticus, kelp gulls Larus dominicanus, southern giant petrels Macronectes giganteus) and marine mammals (southern elephant seals Mirounga leonina). Significant differences in δ¹³C values among species were noted with a great overlap between seabird species and M. leonina. As expected, significant differences in δ¹⁵N values among species were found due to interspecific variations in diet-related to their trophic position within the marine food web. The lowest Hg concentrations were registered in E. superba (0.007 ± 0.008 μg g⁻¹) and the highest values in M. giganteus (12.090 ± 14.177 μg g⁻¹). Additionally, a significant positive relationship was found between Hg concentrations and trophic levels (reflected by δ¹⁵N values), biomagnifying nearly 2 times its concentrations at each level. Our results support that trophic interaction is the major pathway for Hg biomagnification in Southern Ocean ecosystems and warn about an increase in the effects of Hg on long–lived (and high trophic level) Antarctic predators under climate change in the future.
Mostrar más [+] Menos [-]Inhibition of methylmercury uptake by freshwater phytoplankton in presence of algae-derived organic matter
2022
Li, Zhike | Chi, Jie | Shao, Bo | Wu, Zhengyu | He, Wei | Liu, Yiwen | Sun, Peizhe | Lin, Huiming | Wang, Xuejun | Zhao, Yingxin | Chen, Long | Tong, Yindong
As the first step of methylmercury (MeHg) entry into the aquatic food webs, MeHg uptake by phytoplankton is crucial in determining the final human MeHg exposure risks. MeHg availability to plankton is regulated by dissolved organic matter (DOM) in the water, while the extent of the impacts can vary largely based on the sources of DOM. Here, we investigated impacts of DOM sources on MeHg bioconcentration by three freshwater phytoplankton species (i.e. S. quadricauda, Chlorella sp., Microcystis elabens) in the laboratory system. We found that algae-derived DOM would prohibited the cellular MeHg bioconcentration by a percent up to 77–93%, while the soil-derived DOM didn't show similar inhibition effects. DOM characterization by the excitation‒emission matrices, Fourier transform infrared spectrum, ultra‒high performance liquid chromatography‒tandem quadrupole time of flight mass spectrometry shown that the molecular size of S-containing compound, rather than thiol concentration, has played a crucial role in regulating the MeHg uptake by phytoplankton. Climate change and increasing nutrient loadings from human activities may affect plankton growth in the freshwater, ultimately changing the DOM compositions. Impacts of these changes on cellular MeHg uptakes by phytoplankton should be emphasized when exploring the aquatic Hg cycling and evaluating their risks to human beings and wild life.
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