International audience | We expose here a detailed spatially explicit model of aphid population dynamics at the scale of a whole country (Metropolitan France). It is based on convection-diffusionreaction equations, driven by abiotic and biotic factors. The target species is the grain aphid, Sitobion avenae F., considering both its winged and apterousmorphs. In this preliminary work, simulations for year 2004 (an outbreak case) produced realistic aphid densities, and showed that both spatial and temporal S. avenae population dynamics can be represented as an irregular wave of population peak densities from southwest to northeast of the country, driven by gradients or differences in temperature, wheat phenology, and wheat surfaces. This wave pattern fits well to our knowledge of S. avenae phenology. The effects of three insecticide spray regimes were simulated in five different sites and showed that insecticide sprays were ineffective in terms of yield increase after wheat flowering. After suitable validation, which will require some further years of observations, the model will be used to forecast aphid densities in real time at any date or growth stage of the crop anywhere in the country. It will be the backbone of a decision support system, forecasting yield losses at the level of a field. The model intends then to complete the punctual forecasting provided by older models by a comprehensive spatial view on a large area and leads to the diminution of insecticide sprayings in wheat crops.

The EU is a pre-eminent player in sustainable development, adopting more than 200 pieces of legislation that have direct repercussions for marine environmental policy and management. Over five decades, measures have aimed to protect the marine environment by tackling the impact of human activities, but maritime affairs have been dealt with by separate sectoral policies without fully integrating all relevant sectors. Such compartmentalisation has resulted in a patchwork of EU legislation and resultant national legislation leading to a piecemeal approach to marine protection. These are superimposed on international obligations emanating from UN and other bodies and are presented here as complex ‘horrendograms’ showing the complexity across vertical governance. These horrendograms have surprised marine experts despite them acknowledging the many uses and users of the marine environment. Encouragingly since 2000, the evolution in EU policy has progressed to more holistic directives and here we give an overview of this change.

Polar anthropogenic organic micropollutants are frequently detected in freshwater and discharged on large scale into marine systems. In this work the results of 153 samples collected from the shorelines of the Baltic Sea (Germany), Northern Adriatic Sea (Italy), Aegean Sea and Dardanelles (Greece & Turkey), San Francisco Bay (USA), Pacific Ocean (USA), Mediterranean Sea (Israel), and Balearic Sea (Spain) are presented. The samples were analyzed for various classes of micropollutants such as pharmaceuticals, corrosion inhibitors, biocides, and stimulants. Caffeine, paraxanthine, theobromine, tolyltriazole, 1H-benzotriazole, and atrazine were detected in>50% of all samples. The detection frequencies of carbamazepine, iopamidol, diuron, sulfamethoxazole, paracetamol, theophylline, and atenolol were between 20% and 32%. As caffeine is linked to untreated wastewater, the widespread occurrence of raw sewage in marine environments and thus potentially elevated nutrient concentrations and risk for the presence of wastewater-related pathogens is remarkable.

A one-dimensional wave model was used to investigate the reef top wave dynamics across a large suite of idealized reef-lagoon profiles, representing barrier coral reef systems under different sea-level rise (SLR) scenarios. The modeling shows that the impacts of SLR vary spatially and are strongly influenced by the bathymetry of the reef and coral type. A complex response occurs for the wave orbital velocity and forces on corals, such that the changes in the wave dynamics vary reef by reef. Different wave loading regimes on massive and branching corals also leads to contrasting impacts from SLR. For many reef bathymetries, wave orbital velocities increase with SLR and cyclonic wave forces are reduced for certain coral species. These changes may be beneficial to coral health and colony resilience and imply that predicting SLR impacts on coral reefs requires careful consideration of the reef bathymetry and the mix of coral species.

The sandy deposits from dredging can have negative effects on the environment such as increase in suspended solids in the water column and their consequent transport. An experimental study was conducted to characterize water masses, dynamics, and sedimentation rates on the Ligurian continental shelf (Italy), where both a sand deposit, that could be used for beach nourishment, and a nearby Posidonia oceanica meadow coexist. The environmental plan provides a mathematical simulation of the sediment-dispersion to evaluate the possible impact on the meadow. It has been calculated that the dredging could double the concentration of suspended particles, but its scheduling will preclude a sediment accumulation. All the information obtained from this work will be used to study the environmental feasibility of the sand deposit exploitation and as starting point for drawing up the monitoring plan in case of dredging.

We developed generalised additive mixed models (GAMMs) to infer spatiotemporal trends of environmental PCB concentrations from an extensive dataset (n=1219) of PCB concentrations measured between 1991 and 2010 in sediments of the Belgian Coastal Zone (BCZ) and the Western Scheldt estuary. A GAMM with time, geographical zone, periodicity and the organic carbon – water partition coefficient as covariates explained 49% of the variability in the log transformed PCB sediment concentrations. The time trends unraveled two to threefold PCB concentration decreases in the BCZ during the last 20years. However, in the Western Scheldt estuary, time trends were spatially heterogeneous and not significantly decreasing. These results demonstrate that international efforts to cut down emissions of PCBs have been effective to reduce concentrations in open water ecosystems like the BCZ but had little effect in the urbanised and industrialised area of the Scheldt estuary.

Arctic shipping is on the rise, leading to increased concern over the potential environmental impacts. To better understand the magnitude of influence to the Arctic environment, detailed modelling of emissions and environmental risks are essential. This paper describes a framework for environmental accounting. A cornerstone in the framework is the use of Automatic Identification System (AIS) ship tracking data from satellites. When merged with ship registers and other data sources, it enables unprecedented accuracy in modelling and geographical allocation of emissions and discharges. This paper presents results using two of the models in the framework; emissions of black carbon (BC) in the Arctic, which is of particular concern for climate change, and; bunker fuels and wet bulk carriage in the Arctic, of particular concern for oil spill to the environment. Using the framework, a detailed footprint from Arctic shipping with regards to operational emissions and potential discharges is established.

Organochlorine contaminants in upper trophic-level consumers inhabiting Puget Sound are consistently higher than in those species inhabiting other west coast locations. We analyzed persistent organic pollutants (POPs) in the six most common fish prey of rhinoceros auklets breeding on Protection Island (Puget Sound), Tatoosh Island (WA coast), and Destruction Island (WA coast). Wet-weight concentrations of POPs ranged widely (PCBs: 1.6–25.0ng/g; DDTs: 0.2–56.0ng/g; PBDEs:<LOQ-49.0ng/g), but overall patterns showed fish from Puget Sound were 2–4 times more contaminated and had similar contaminant profiles compared to fish from the outer coast. Unexpectedly elevated PCB and PBDE concentrations in Chinook salmon from the outer coast likely reflected Columbia River. Calculating contaminant loads for auklet nestlings magnified differences observed between inland and outer coast fish prey. Monitoring of breeding auklets, their prey and other resident marine birds is needed to assess biomagnification impacts in the Puget Sound marine ecosystem.

The dynamics of river plume in relation to harmful blooms of the raphidophycean flagellate, Chattonella antiqua in summer 2008–2010 in the Yatsushiro Sea, Japan were studied using a hydrodynamic model and monitoring data. In the southern area, the bloom formed in the waters stratified by a halocline caused by the southward expansion of riverine water from the Kuma River after the bloom initially forming in the northern area. The timing of the southward riverine water advection can be explained by the balance between the wind stress term and the pressure gradient term calculated from the horizontal density difference between the northern and southern areas. The wind stress and pressure gradient terms were evaluated using the sea surface temperature, salinity, wind speed and direction at two stations. Real time monitoring or continuous observations in these areas will enable nowcasts of bloom expansion when a bloom develops in the northern area.