This paper focuses on regional integration through the lenses of the Water–Food–Energy (WEF) nexus, a concept putting strong emphasis on cross-sectoral and multi-level interactions as well as on resource interdependencies. There is an extensive amount of published research focusing on the Aral Sea basin. In this paper, the authors build upon these different contributions and provide a meta-analysis of the literature of WEF nexus opportunities in Central Asia (CA) countries. This paper contributes to ongoing discussions regarding how the WEF Nexus can represent an opportunity for reinforced collaboration regarding resources management. To do so, focusing on existing literature, this paper first (1) explores how the nexus can be a relevant instrument for regional integration. Second (2), it provides an overview of water, food, energy conditions and challenges in the Aral Sea basin in particular. Third (3), synthesizing existing research, the authors identify critical variables to be considered as hurdles or leverage points for WEF nexus implementation in the Aral Sea basin. Finally (4), we go back to our initial set of questions and identify some possible avenues for future research.

The widespread uncertainty regarding future changes in climate, socioeconomic conditions, and population growth have increased interest in water-energy-food-ecology nexus-based frameworks in relation to the analysis of water resources. A challenge for modeling the water-energy-food-ecology nexus is how to reduce the multidimensional and codependent uncertainties and measure the complicated casual relationships effectively. We propose a methodological solution to the problem, and this solution is demonstrated in this case as an extension to the previous water resource optimization framework. We coupled the water-energy-food-ecology nexus into the Bayesian network, which provides a formal representation of the joint probabilistic behavior of the system, and the method was applied to water resource use analysis and management in the Syr Darya River basin, a transboundary and endorheic basin that has contributed to the Aral Sea ecological crisis as a result of unreasonable water use. The annual scale data of four periods, 1970–1980, 1980–1991, 1991–2005, and 2005–2015, were introduced into the Bayesian network. Before the disintegration of the Soviet Union, the amount of water inflow into the Aral Sea was sensitive to increases in irrigation for agricultural development, increases in water storage of the upstream reservoirs and stochastic runoff. After the disintegration of the Soviet Union, the amount of water inflow into the Aral Sea was sensitive to the inefficient irrigation water use in the downstream areas of Uzbekistan and Kazakhstan and the water storage of the reservoir located upstream of Kyrgyzstan. The change resulted from unresolvable disputes between water use for power generation in the upstream area and irrigation in the downstream area. Comprehensive scenario analysis shows that, in the short term, it would be useful to improve the proportion of food crops, improve the efficiency of water use in relation to salt leaching and irrigation, and prevent drought damage. In the long term, based on the increased use of advanced drip irrigation technology from 50% to 80%, the annual inflow into the Aral Sea will increase significantly, reaching 6.4 km³ and 9.6 km³, respectively, and this technology is capable of ameliorating the ecological crisis within the basin.

The present report was developed to describe the main futures of the validation workshop on the Decision Support Tool (DST) organized on the 1st of August in Tashkent, Uzbekistan. The introduction part of the report highlights the Nexus Gains initiative, the initiative's output - Decision Support Tool for optimizing the Water-Energy-Food-Ecosystem Nexus within the Aral Sea Basin, and the workshop aim and objectives, The main part of the report highlights workshop participants, conducted survey within WEFE sector stakeholders, ICARDA's DST instrument and discussions and recommendations during the workshop. The report ends with workshop agenda and list of participants.