While agriculture places the greatest demand on water resources, increasing agricultural production is worsening a global water shortage. Reducing the cultivation of water-consuming crops may be the most effective way to reduce agricultural water use. However, when also taking food demand into consideration, sustaining the balance between regional water and food securities is a growing challenge. This paper addresses this task for regions where water is unsustainable for food production (Beijing-Tianjin-Hebei Region for example) by: (i) assessing the different effects of wheat and maize on water use; (ii) analyzing virtual water and virtual land flows associated with food imports and exports between Beijing-Tianjin-Hebei and elsewhere in China; (iii) identifying sub-regions where grain is produced using scarce water resources but exported to other regions; and (iv) analyzing the potentiality for mitigating water shortage via Land-Water-Food Nexus. In the Beijing-Tianjin-Hebei Region, the study reveals that 29.76 bn m3 of virtual water (10.81 bn m3 of blue virtual water) are used by wheat and maize production and 8.77 bn m3 of virtual water used in nearly 2 million ha of cropland to overproduce 12 million ton of maize for external food consumption. As an importing-based sub-region with high population density, Beijing & Tianjin imported mostly grain (wheat and maize) from Shandong Province. Then, Hebei Province, as an exporting-based sub-region with severe water shortage, overproduced too much grain for other regions, which aggravated the water crisis. To achieve an integrated and sustainable development of the Beijing-Tianjin-Hebei Region, Hebei Province should stop undertaking the breadbasket role for Beijing & Tianjin and pay more attention to groundwater depletion. The analysis of the Land-Water-Food Nexus indicates how shifts in cultivated crops can potentially solve the overuse of water resources without adverse effects on food supply. It also provides meaningful information to support policy decisions about regional cropping strategies.

Iran’s focus on food self-sufficiency has led to an emphasis on increasing water volumes available for irrigation with little attention to water use efficiency, and no attention at all to the role of consumption and trade. To better understand the development of water consumption in relation to food production, consumption, and trade, we carried out the first comprehensive water footprint assessment (WFA) for Iran, for the period 1980–2010, and estimated the water saving per province associated with interprovincial and international crop trade. Based on the AquaCrop model, we estimated the green and blue water footprint (WF) related to both the production and consumption of 26 crops, per year and on a daily basis, for 30 provinces of Iran. We find that, in the period 1980–2010, crop production increased by 175%, the total WF of crop production by 122%, and the blue WF by 20%. The national population grew by 92%, and the crop consumption per capita by 20%, resulting in a 130% increase in total food consumption and a 110% increase in the total WF of national crop consumption. In 2010, 26% of the total water consumption in the semi-arid region served the production of crops for export to other regions within Iran (mainly cereals) or abroad (mainly fruits and nuts). Iran’s interprovincial virtual water trade grew by a factor of 1.6, which was mainly due to increased interprovincial trade in cereals, nuts, and fruits. Current Iranian food and water policy could be enriched by reducing the WFs of crop production to certain benchmark levels per crop and climatic region and aligning cropping patterns to spatial differences in water availability and productivities, and by paying due attention to the increasing food consumption per capita in Iran.

Food and water are inextricably linked. With the increase of water consumption in irrigation and food growth, water shortage has become an urgent issue. Irrational cross-regional transfer of water embodied in food exacerbates water scarcity and restrict China's sustainable development. Given that, a Virtual Water-Food Nexus Model is developed to quantify the inter-provincial transfer of water embodied in food and to identify the complicated interactions between different provinces. In detail, Environmental Input-Output Analysis is applied to quantitatively estimate the inter-provincial water transfer embodied in food trades. Based on the network constructed by interrelated nature of nexus, the mutual interactions, control situation, and the dominant and weak pathways are examined through the combination of Ecological Network Analysis and Principal Component Analysis. Two new indictors water consumption intensity and water supply capacity are first performed to measure the role of each province from the supply and consume side respectively. It is revealed that interregional food transactions failed to realize water resources dispatching management. Many water-deficient regions suffered from massive virtual water losses through food exports, but water-rich areas still import large quantities of food containing virtual water. Results show that exploitation and competition dominate the ecological relationships between provinces. Agricultural GDP ratio is the indicator which most affect water consumption intensity and water supply capacity. Network-based research contributes more insights into the recognition of water management responsibilities across provinces and municipalities. These findings will provide a scientific support to adjust unreasonable allocation of water resources in China in an attempt to addressing the contradiction between food demand and water shortages.

Ecuador is facing several threats to its food and water security, with over a tenth of its population currently undernourished and living in poverty. As a response, its government is incorporating new patterns of land use and developing regional water infrastructure to cope with the related challenges. In this study, we assess to what point these efforts contribute to integrated water and food security in the country. We investigated the period 2004–2013 in the most productive agricultural region - the Guayas river basin district (GRBD) - and analysed the impacts of different scenarios of agricultural change on local water security. Our approach integrates MuSIASEM (Multi-Scale Integrated Analysis of Societal and Ecosystem Metabolism) with the hydrological SWAT model. Freshwater allocation is evaluated within all the water cycle from its source (natural systems) to the final users (societal systems). Water security is assessed spatiotemporally in terms of water stress for the population living in poverty. Water productivity is obtained in relation to agricultural production and nutrition. The multi-scale analysis shows that whereas at river basin district level the median annual streamflow has a similar magnitude than rainfall stored in soil, these two parameters differ spatiotemporally at subbasin level. The study finds the greatest challenge in achieving water security is the south-east and central part of the GRBD, due to water scarcity and a larger population living in poverty. However, these areas are also simultaneously, where the greatest crop water productivity is found. We conclude that food production for both domestic consumption and market-oriented exports can be increased while meeting ecosystem water demands in all the GRBD regions except for the east. Our integration of methods provides a better approach to inform integrated land and water management and is relevant for academics, practitioners and policymakers alike.

This study explores the potential effects of electricity pricing on crop cultivation in Saudi Arabia. The country recently started implementing a domestic energy price reform strategy to make energy consumption more sustainable and increase government revenues as highlighted in the Fiscal Balance Program one of the key realization programs of Vision 2030. Two modeling schemes were developed to complete this analysis. First, a model that applies physical equations to estimate water and energy requirements for 21 crops across 13 provinces. Second, an optimization model that runs iteratively to determine short-run electricity costs, import costs and export revenues. The main finding from the model simulations is that increasing electricity prices will shrink the domestic cultivation and exports of the crops while increasing their imports. For example, as an extreme case, if the agriculture electricity price is raised from $0.048 per kWh to the US industrial electricity price level of $0.692 per kWh, the model optimizes that this will reduce electricity consumption from 33.65 gWh to 7.84 gWh, domestic crop cultivation from 15.1 million tons to 6.3 million tons, and crops' export from 0.062 million tons to 0.057 million tons while will increase crops’ import from 9.5 million tons to 18.3 million tons.

This paper introduces a modeling framework for the analysis of real and virtual water flows at national scale. The framework has two components: (1) a national water model that simulates agricultural, industrial and municipal water uses, and available water and land resources; and (2) an international virtual water trade model that captures national virtual water exports and imports related to trade in crops and animal products. This National Water, Food & Trade (NWFT) modeling framework is applied to Egypt, a water-poor country and the world's largest importer of wheat. Egypt's food and water gaps and the country's food (virtual water) imports are estimated over a baseline period (1986–2013) and projected up to 2050 based on four scenarios. Egypt's food and water gaps are growing rapidly as a result of steep population growth and limited water resources. The NWFT modeling framework shows the nexus of the population dynamics, water uses for different sectors, and their compounding effects on Egypt's food gap and water self-sufficiency. The sensitivity analysis reveals that for solving Egypt's water and food problem non-water-based solutions like educational, health, and awareness programs aimed at lowering population growth will be an essential addition to the traditional water resources development solution. Both the national and the global models project similar trends of Egypt's food gap. The NWFT modeling framework can be easily adapted to other nations and regions.

At global scale, the majority of world water withdrawal is for the agricultural sector, with differences among countries depending on the relevance of agri-food sector in the economy. Virtual water and water footprint could be useful to express the impact on the water resources of each production process and good with the objective to lead to a sustainable use of water at a global level. International trade could be connected to the virtual water flows, in fact through commodities importation, water poor countries can save their own water resources. The present paper focuses on the bilateral virtual water flows connected to the top ten agri-food products traded between Italy and China. Comparing the virtual water flow related to the top 10 agri-food products, the virtual water flow from Italy to China is bigger than the water flow in the opposite direction. Moreover, the composition of virtual water flows is different; Italy imports significant amounts of grey water from China, depending on the different environmental strategies adopted by the two selected countries. This difference could be also related to the fact that traded commodities are very different; the 91% of virtual water imported by Italy is connected to crops products, while the 95% of virtual water imported by China is related to the animal products. Considering national water saving and global water saving, appears that Italy imports virtual water from China while China exerts pressure on its water resources to supply the exports to Italy. This result at global scale implies a global water loss of 129.29millionm3 because, in general, the agri-food products are traded from the area with lower water productivity to the area with the higher water productivity.

This study investigates food trade patterns in relation to water resources availability in the Southern and Eastern Mediterranean countries (SEMED). Examinations show that most of these countries have a high dependence on the import of water intensive crops -- cereal, vegetable oil and sugar, in the domestic food supply. The region as a whole is marginally a net exporter of fruits and vegetables, while variations are substantial across countries. Multi-variable regression analyses show that intensification of water scarcity is an important factor in explaining the increase in food import in the SEMED countries during the past two decades. It also finds that while GDP per capita has a strong influence on the level of food import in a country, its impact on changes in the import during the same period is rather modest. No significant relationship is found between the trade of fruits and vegetables and water resources availability. The projection on food import with respect to the decline in per capita water resources availability results in an increase of 40%, 39% and 14%, respectively, for cereal, vegetable oil and sugar by 2020 in the region, holding other factors constant. The European Union (EU) is the major food trade partner of the SEMED countries, except for cereal. About 70% of the fruit export and 55% of the vegetable export of the region currently go to the EU market. Expanding the export of fruits and vegetables is conducive to improving the value of water use in the SEMED countries. However, the expansion is constrained partly by the barriers in the destination markets, notably the EU.

During the past three decades, the Pisque watershed in Ecuador's Northern Andes has become the country's principal export-roses producing area. Recently, a new boom of local smallholders have established small rose greenhouses and joined the flower-export business. This has intensified water scarcity and material/discursive conflicts over water use priorities: water to defend local-national food sovereignty or production for export. This paper examines how including peasant flower farms in the capitalist dream – driven by a ‘mimetic desire’ and copying large-scale capitalist flower-farm practices and technologies – generates new intra-community conflicts over collective water rights, extending traditional class-based water conflicts. New allocation principles in Ecuador's progressive 2008 Constitution and 2014 Water Law prioritising food production over flowers' industrial water use are unlikely to benefit smallholder communities. Instead, decision-making power for peasant communities and their water users' associations on water use priority would enable water user prioritization according to smallholders' own preferences.

Rapid urbanization poses great challenges to water-energy-food nexus (WEF-Nexus) system, calling for integrative resources governance to improve the synergies between subsystems that constitute the Nexus. This paper explores the synergies within the WEF-Nexus in Shenzhen city while using the synergetic model. We first identify the order parameters and their causal paths in three subsystems and set several eigenvectors under each parameter. Secondly, a synergetic model is developed to calculate the synergy degree among parameters, and the synergetic networks are then further constructed. Centrality analysis on the synergetic networks reveals that the centralities of food subsystem perform the highest level while the water subsystem at the lowest level. Finally, we put forward some policy implications for cross-sectoral resources governance by embedding the synergy degree into causal paths. The results show that the synergies of the Nexus system in Shenzhen can be maximized by stabilizing water supply, coordinating the energy imports and exports, and reducing the crops sown areas.