This article examines impacts of infrastructure development and climate variability on economic outcomes for the Amu Darya Basin in Central Asia. It aims to identify the most economically productive mix of expanded reservoir storage for economic benefit sharing to occur, in which economic welfare of all riparians is improved. Policies examined include four combinations of storage infrastructure for each of two climate futures. An empirical optimization model is developed and applied to identify opportunities for improving the welfare of Tajikistan, Uzbekistan, Afghanistan, and Turkmenistan. The analysis 1) characterizes politically constrained and economically optimized water-use patterns for these combinations of expanded reservoir storage capacity, 2) describes Pareto-Improving packages of expanded storage capacity that could raise economic welfare for all four riparians, and accounts for impacts for each of two climate scenarios. Results indicate that a combination of targeted water storage infrastructure and efficient water allocation could produce outcomes for which the discounted net present value of benefits are favorable for each riparian. Results identify a framework to provide economic motivation for all riparians to cooperate through development of water storage infrastructure. Our findings illustrate the principle that development of water infrastructure can expand the negotiation space by which all communities can gain economic benefits in the face of limited water supply. Still, despite our optimistic findings, patient and deliberate negotiation will be required to transform potential improvements into actual gains.

To date, the land–water–food nexus has been primarily addressed from an ecological, hydrological or agronomic angle, with limited response to the governance interface between the input resources. Likewise, in widely used heuristic frameworks, such as the social–ecological system (SES) framework, governance interactions between resources are not sufficiently addressed. We address this gap empirically, using the case of Tajikistan, based on a farm household survey analysis of 306 farmers. The results indicate that land system variables contribute to the willingness to cooperate in irrigation management. Specifically, formal land tenure has a positive effect on farmers paying for water as well as on the likelihood of their investing time and effort in irrigation infrastructure, which is decisive for Tajikistan’s food and fiber production. Irrigation system variables show that, e.g., being an upstream user increases the likelihood to contribute to labor maintenance efforts. We further discuss how decisions with respect to the land sector could be designed in the future to facilitate cooperation in other resource sectors. Further, we conclude from a conceptual perspective that the SES framework integrating a nexus perspective can be adapted: either (1) by adding a second-tier “governance nexus” variable inside the governance variable of an irrigation system; or (2) by adding a land resource unit and system outside the irrigation system.

To date, the land–water–food nexus has been primarily addressed from an ecological, hydrological or agronomic angle, with limited response to the governance interface between the input resources. Likewise, in widely used heuristic frameworks, such as the social–ecological system (SES) framework, governance interactions between resources are not sufficiently addressed. We address this gap empirically, using the case of Tajikistan, based on a farm household survey analysis of 306 farmers. The results indicate that land system variables contribute to the willingness to cooperate in irrigation management. Specifically, formal land tenure has a positive effect on farmers paying for water as well as on the likelihood of their investing time and effort in irrigation infrastructure, which is decisive for Tajikistan’s food and fiber production. Irrigation system variables show that, e.g., being an upstream user increases the likelihood to contribute to labor maintenance efforts. We further discuss how decisions with respect to the land sector could be designed in the future to facilitate cooperation in other resource sectors. Further, we conclude from a conceptual perspective that the SES framework integrating a nexus perspective can be adapted: either (1) by adding a second-tier “governance nexus” variable inside the governance variable of an irrigation system: or (2) by adding a land resource unit and system outside the irrigation system.

According to the UN, the population of Central Asia will increase from its current approximately 65million people to a well over 90million by the end of this century. Taking this increasing population into consideration, it is impossible to project development strategies without considering three key factors in meeting the demands of a growing population: water, food and energy. Societies will have to choose, for instance, between using land and fertilizer for food production or for bio-based or renewable energy production, and between using fresh water for energy production or for irrigating crops. Thus water, food and energy are inextricably linked and must be considered together as a system. Recently, tensions among the Central Asian countries over the use of water for energy and energy production have increased with the building of Rogun Dam on the Vakhsh River, a tributary of the Amu Darya River. The dam will provide upstream Tajikistan with hydropower, while downstream countries fear it could negatively impact their irrigated agriculture. Despite recent peer reviewed literature on water resources management in Amu Darya Basin, none to date have addressed the interconnection and mutual impacts within water–energy–food systems in face of constructing the Rogun Dam. We examine two potential operation modes of the dam: Energy Mode (ensuring Tajikistan’s hydropower needs) and Irrigation Mode (ensuring water for agriculture downstream). Results show that the Energy Mode could ensure more than double Tajikistan’s energy capacity, but would reduce water availability during the growing season, resulting in an average 37% decline in agricultural benefits in downstream countries. The Irrigation Mode could bring a surplus in agricultural benefits to Tajikistan and Uzbekistan in addition an increasing energy benefits in Tajikistan by two fold. However, energy production in the Irrigation Mode would be non-optimally distributed over the seasons resulting in the most of hydropower being produced during the growing season. Neither operation mode provides optimal benefits for all the countries, emphasizing how difficult it is to actually reach a win–win scenario across the water–energy–food security nexus in transboundary river basins.

Vicious competition for limited water resources hinders the synergetic and sustainable development of Central Asian countries, which further threatens food security and exacerbates ecological degradation. In this study, a copula-based bi-level decentralized programming (CBDP) method is developed and applied to planning water-food-ecology (WFE) nexus system. CBDP has advantages in balancing tradeoffs between different decision levels, analyzing synergies among multiple managers and reflecting joint risks of interrelated uncertain parameters. Then, a CBDP-WFE model is formulated for Central Asia, where the upper-level model aims to maximize system benefit for the region (i.e. regional-scale), and the lower-level model involves five objectives to maximize five countries’ benefits (i.e. national-scale) respectively. Totally 108 scenarios are designed to analyze the impacts of joint constraint-violation risk, agricultural irrigation efficiency, and ecological water demand. Results reveal that (i) improving agricultural irrigation efficiency can optimize the water allocation pattern as well as increase the system benefit; (ii) in order to restore the regional eco-environment, the proportion of ecological water allocation should increase from 7% (of the current level) to 14.9–23.8% (by 2050); (iii) water allocations to Uzbekistan and Tajikistan should be properly controlled especially when available water is scarce. The results are helpful for managers in not only making decisions of water allocation among multiple users and countries but also gaining insight into synergetic management of WFE nexus under various system conditions.

The water-energy-food (WEF) nexus is a holistic concept used to understand the synergies and trade-offs of interdependent water, energy, and food resources. Despite its widespread use, this concept often overlooks environmental concerns. In addition, the lack of a systemic approach in the Aral Sea Basin (ASB) has resulted in serious environmental degradation. For instance, the Aral Sea, situated at the terminus of the basin, is steadily shrinking, yet researchers studying the WEF nexus tend to overlook the upstream tributaries of the basin. This study aims to determine the extent to which research on the WEF nexus in the ASB in Central Asia has considered the environment through a systematic review of the literature published between 2012 and 2022. The results indicate that the number of WEF publications regarding the ASB has seen an upward trend, with a primary focus on the transboundary level and less research available on the local and national levels. This confirms the strong reliance of Central Asian states on one another for food, energy, and water resources. Furthermore, the results show that the majority of published studies either do not consider environmental concerns in their analyses at all or do so with little precision. Therefore, to achieve precise and sustainable outcomes, this study recommends the inclusion of environmental concerns along with basin-wide coverage in future WEF analyses. Finally, the WEF concept should be downscaled to the national and local levels in order to facilitate its implementation.

The water-energy-food (WEF) nexus is a holistic concept used to understand the synergies and trade-offs of interdependent water, energy, and food resources. Despite its widespread use, this concept often overlooks environmental concerns. In addition, the lack of a systemic approach in the Aral Sea Basin (ASB) has resulted in serious environmental degradation. For instance, the Aral Sea, situated at the terminus of the basin, is steadily shrinking, yet researchers studying the WEF nexus tend to overlook the upstream tributaries of the basin. This study aims to determine the extent to which research on the WEF nexus in the ASB in Central Asia has considered the environment through a systematic review of the literature published between 2012 and 2022. The results indicate that the number of WEF publications regarding the ASB has seen an upward trend, with a primary focus on the transboundary level and less research available on the local and national levels. This confirms the strong reliance of Central Asian states on one another for food, energy, and water resources. Furthermore, the results show that the majority of published studies either do not consider environmental concerns in their analyses at all or do so with little precision. Therefore, to achieve precise and sustainable outcomes, this study recommends the inclusion of environmental concerns along with basin-wide coverage in future WEF analyses. Finally, the WEF concept should be downscaled to the national and local levels in order to facilitate its implementation.

In today’s intrinsically connected world, the Water–Food–Energy–Climate Nexus (WFEC Nexus) concept provides a starting point for informed and transparent decision-making based on the trade-offs and synergies between different sectors, including aquatic ecosystems, food security, energy production, and climate neutrality. The WFEC Nexus approach is particularly applicable in regions requiring transboundary water management, such as Central Asia. Unfortunately, this region with unevenly distributed water resources—consisting of Kazakhstan, Kyrgyzstan, Tajikistan, Turkmenistan, and Uzbekistan—is characterized by data scarcity, which limits informed decision-making. However, open-source geodata is becoming increasingly available. This paper aims to fill Central Asia’s WFEC Nexus data gap by providing an overview of key data. We collected geodata through an integrated survey of stakeholders and researchers, stakeholder consultation, and literature screening. Sixty unique datasets were identified, belonging to one of six thematic categories: (1) climate, (2) hydrology, (3) geography and topography, (4) geomorphology, (5) ecology, and (6) anthropogenic uses. For each dataset, a succinct description, including a link to the online source, is provided. We also provide possible applications of using the presented datasets, demonstrating how they can assist in conducting various studies linked to the WFEC Nexus in Central Asia and worldwide.

This work was carried out under the Collaborative Adaptation Research Initiative in Africa and Asia (CARIAA), with financial support from the UK Government’s Department for International Development (DfID) and the International Development Research Centre (IDRC), Canada. | This research examines the relationship between semi-arid lands and national economic development, and the potential of food/agricultural trade to buffer semi-arid land vulnerability and mitigate water scarcity. It investigates a key assumption in development thinking – that water limits in semi-arid areas constrain economic growth. The research findings question whether future investment should be targeted at semi-arid lands directly, or whether wider national institutional and capacity considerations, including food trade, should be given more attention as a means of mitigating the vulnerability of people, land and economies to climate change.