Climate change is at the top of the development agenda in Central America. This region, together with the Caribbean, is highly vulnerable to the effects of climate change in Latin America. Climate change is manifesting itself through higher average temperatures and more frequent droughts that result in higher water stress, and through the rising frequency of extreme weather events such as tropical storms, hurricanes, floods and landslides, all of which pose significant challenges in the rural water supply and sanitation sector. The paper starts with a review of the historic data on temperature and precipitation trends in Central America and particularly at the regional level in Nicaragua. The data reveal a clear trend of the growing climate variability, increased water stress for crops, and greater frequency of extreme weather events. The rising intensity and frequency of ex-treme weather events is among the most critical risks to the region's development agenda, and they translate into high economic losses. This paper examines the impacts and implications of potential climate change on water resources in Nicaragua and makes key recommendations to integrate climate change and rural water supply and sanitation policies and programs in a way that increase resilience to current and future climate conditions. | 0

A bacia hidrográfica do Arroio Marrecas, localizada na porção nordeste do município de Caxias do Sul, RS, abriga os principais mananciais de água para abastecimento da crescente população na região, além de importantes fragmentos de Mata Atlântica e Campos Sulinos. Este estudo buscou analisar as alterações de uso das terras em escala espaço-temporal nos últimos 48 anos, analisar a relação entre a qualidade das águas superficiais, utilizando dados de campanhas de monitoramento entre 2010 e 2011, e o uso atual das terras e simular a dinâmica de cenários futuros para um período de 15 anos. As ferramentas utilizadas na primeira etapa foram interpretação visual de imagens de satélite e fotos aéreas, apoiadas em campanhas de levantamento a campo. A posteriori, foi construído um banco de dados geoespaciais e a simulação espacial utilizando o modelo Conversion of Land Use and its Effects at small region extent (CLUE-S). Os resultados obtidos na primeira etapa indicam um decréscimo das áreas originalmente ocupadas por campos e matas, o que pode ser atribuído ao crescente processo de urbanização e a expansão de atividades agrícolas intensivas como fruticultura e silvicultura, similar àquela observada em outras regiões na Serra Gaúcha A avaliação da qualidade de água mostra que a alteração na concentração de alguns parâmetros relacionou-se com o uso das terras. Embora os parâmetros Turbidez, Fósforo Total e Coliformes Termotolerantes tenham ultrapassado os limites de Classe 2 (Conama nº 257/2005) em algumas campanhas, a análise de correlação não conseguiu discriminar fatores explanatórios de maneira conclusiva. Quando analisados os resultados da modelagem, observou-se que a dinâmica de realocação dos usos e coberturas das terras nos planos de informação são definidos ou explicitados prioritariamente pelos seguintes fatores explanatórios: Cambissolo Háplico, Cambissolo Húmico e Neossolo Litólico, declividade e elevação do terreno. Análises apoiadas em ferramentas de estatística, geoprocessamento e campanhas de levantamento in situ como as aplicadas neste estudo podem ser instrumentos cruciais para o entendimento da evolução dos usos das terras, servindo de referencial para resolução de potenciais conflitos e mitigação dos impactos ambientais e socioeconômicos que se apresentam. | The Arroio Marrecas watershed, located in the northeastern section Caxias do Sul municipality, is a major drinking water source for the growing population in the region, and contains important fragments of subtropical forests and grasslands. This study investigates land use changes in a spatiotemporal scale in the Arroio Marrecas watershed in the last 48 years, analyze the relationship between the quality of surface water, using data from monitoring campaigns conducted in 2010 and 2011, and the current land use and simulates the dynamics of future scenarios for a period of 15 years. Tools used in the first stage were visual interpretation of satellite images and aerial photos, supported by the field survey campaigns were used. Subsequently, it was built from a geospatial database and the spatial simulation using the model Conversion of Land Use and Its Effects at small region extent (CLUE-S). The results obtained in the first step indicate a decrease in the areas originally occupied by forests and grasslands, which can be attributed to increasing urbanization and the expansion of intensive agricultural production such as horticulture and forestry, similar to that observed in other parts of the highlands of Rio Grande do Sul (Serra Gaúcha) The evaluation of water quality shows that the change in concentration of some parameters was related to the use of the land. Water quality parameters like turbidity, total phosphorus and thermotolerant coliform were above Class 2 limits (CONAMA Resolution 257/2005) in some campaigns, a correlation analysis could not conclusively discriminate the main explanatory factor. On the other hand, a modeling exercise of future ladn use scenarios with the CLUE-S model revealed that dynamic reallocation of land use/land cover were defined primarily by soil classes Cambissolo Háplico, Cambissolo Húmico and Neossolo Litólico, elevation and slope. Analysis supported by statistical geoprocessing tools and field surveys as applied in this study can be crucial tools for understanding the evolution of land uses and serve to resolve potential conflicts and mitigate environmental and socioeconomic impacts.

Resumen en español: "En años recientes, los ríos de Chiapas han sido descritos como contaminados, la gran presión antrópica en el cambio de uso de suelo o rectificación de cauce, y los problemas que se derivan de las cargas de materia orgánica y sedimento, tienen efecto directo en la productividad del sistema lagunar de la Reserva de la Biosfera La Encrucijada. Con el objetivo de inferir la importancia de la vegetación en mejorar la calidad de agua, en este trabajo, se caracterizó la dinámica de la calidad de agua y los nutrientes, a lo largo de dos de los principales ríos que desembocan en la zona núcleo de La Encrucijada: el río Vado Ancho (río control) y el Despoblado (río problema). El diseño experimental se basó en el concepto del espiral de nutrientes, apoyado en la comparación entre dos sistemas fluviales con características similares, monitoreados durante las temporadas definidas como secas, transición y lluvias. Los resultados dados por los análisis multivariados y diagramas de distribución de los parámetros medidos, demostraron que existió diferencia de calidad de agua entre ríos, ante la presencia del agua residual y los posibles cambios de vegetación determinados por las estaciones ubicadas en este trabajo, mostró que existió similitud entre ríos ante el gradiente en decremento de los nutrientes dentro de la zona del manglar. La calidad de agua en la mayoría de las estaciones en ambos ríos resultó fuera de los límites máximos permisibles para la preservación de flora y fauna de agua dulce y estuarios. "

The “Bosque de Agua”, to the west and south of Mexico City, which is the fifth largest city in the world, has historically suffered disturbances in forest cover, with a consequent reduction in the environmental services provided. Changes in the state of the forests between 1994 and 2017 are here analyzed in terms of the annual net change in area of the different cover densities and the different change processes. In general, the net change was favorable in all cases: forest improvement vs. forest degradation, reforestation vs. deforestation, and afforestation vs. land use change. There were changes in 16.03% of the Bosque de Agua: recovery in 11.09% and disturbance in 4.94%. This marked recovery is the result of the protected status of two-thirds of the forest, the payment for hydrological environmental services in 29.33% of the forest, as of 2003, and the continuous programs of reforestation, fire control and surveillance by the local communities, circumstances that have allowed the recovery to exceed the disturbance in most of the Bosque de Agua. One-third of the forest disturbance is concentrated in six of the 35 municipalities in the southern region, caused by clandestine logging by organized gangs, due to the state of ungovernability that reigns in these municipalities.

Abstract: Land use change is one of the main factors of natural ecosystem degradation, affecting nitrogen and water transfer between patches and reducing their productivity. This paper describes how conversion of desert scrub to savanna in central Sonora (RCS) has affected nitrogen and water pools and availability in the soil. Five sampling patches were chosen for each habitat: under the canopy of Olneya tesota trees (NA) and in the intercanopy bare soil (NI) in the desert scrub. Similarly in the buffel grass savanna under the canopy of the same tree species (SA), in bare soil (SI) and under Buffel grass (SB). We analyzed total and available near-surface soil nitrogen and soil water content at different depths during three years (2010 to 2013). We estimated an annual loss of 12.5 kg N ha-1 due to transformation of the natural scrub ecosystem, where trees and shrubs that serve as fertility islands were dominant, to buffel grass savanna. Soil water content in the topsoil was higher in the bare soil than in other habitats, but habitats with vegetation cover had higher water content than bare soil at 150-200 cm soil depth. Our results suggest that the desert scrub to savanna transformation has led to temporal and spatial decline of soil nitrogen and water. This change has affected the nitrogen and water pools, as well as the soil physical properties, soil fertility and water pools leading to an impact on hydrological budget and function of the transformed ecosystem. | Resumen: El cambio de uso de suelo es uno de los principales factores de la degradación de los ecosistemas naturales, al modificar los procesos de transferencia de nitrógeno y agua reduciendo su productividad. En el presente trabajo, se describe cómo la transformación de matorrales desérticos a sabanas de zacate buffel en la región central de Sonora (RCS) afecta dichos almacenes de recursos del suelo. Para entenderlo, se seleccionaron parcelas en el matorral bajo el dosel de árboles de Olneya tesota (NA) y espacios abiertos sin cobertura vegetal aparente (NI), y en la sabana de buffel, bajo la misma especie de árbol (SA), inter-espacio (SI) y bajo el pasto Buffel (SB). Se analizó el nitrógeno total y las formas disponibles de este nutrimento en el suelo, así como contenido de agua en el suelo a diferentes profundidades durante cuatro años (2010 al 2013). Se encontró una pérdida anual de 12.5 kg N ha-1 debido a la transformación del ecosistema natural dominado por árboles y arbustos que generan islas de fertilidad e inter-espacios, a una sabana dominada por buffel e inter-espacios a sabana. La humedad del suelo indica que en la parte superficial del suelo, los espacios abiertos tienen más humedad, pero en la parte profunda de 150 a 200 cm la cubierta vegetal de los árboles y buffel almacenan más agua. Los resultados sugieren que el cambio de matorrales a sabanas de buffel ha disminuido los reservorios de nitrógeno y agua, e impactado las propiedades físicas del suelo, la fertilidad, y los reservorios hídricos del suelo. El estudio sugiere que los cambios espaciales y temporales en nitrógeno y agua en el suelo repercutirán de manera importante en el balance hidrológico y funcionamiento del ecosistema transformado.

The Central Valley in California (USA) covers about 52,000 km² and is one of the most productive agricultural regions in the world. This agriculture relies heavily on surface-water diversions and groundwater pumpage to meet irrigation water demand. Because the valley is semi-arid and surface-water availability varies substantially, agriculture relies heavily on local groundwater. In the southern two thirds of the valley, the San Joaquin Valley, historic and recent groundwater pumpage has caused significant and extensive drawdowns, aquifer-system compaction and subsidence. During recent drought periods (2007–2009 and 2012-present), groundwater pumping has increased owing to a combination of decreased surface-water availability and land-use changes. Declining groundwater levels, approaching or surpassing historical low levels, have caused accelerated and renewed compaction and subsidence that likely is mostly permanent. The subsidence has caused operational, maintenance, and construction-design problems for water-delivery and flood-control canals in the San Joaquin Valley. Planning for the effects of continued subsidence in the area is important for water agencies. As land use, managed aquifer recharge, and surface-water availability continue to vary, long-term groundwater-level and subsidence monitoring and modelling are critical to understanding the dynamics of historical and continued groundwater use resulting in additional water-level and groundwater storage declines, and associated subsidence. Modeling tools such as the Central Valley Hydrologic Model, can be used in the evaluation of management strategies to mitigate adverse impacts due to subsidence while also optimizing water availability. This knowledge will be critical for successful implementation of recent legislation aimed toward sustainable groundwater use.

Over-exploited groundwater is expected to remain the predominant source of domestic water in suburban areas of Hanoi, Vietnam. In order to evaluate the effect on groundwater recharge, of decreasing surface-water bodies and land-use change caused by urbanization, the relevant groundwater systems and recharge pathways must be characterized in detail. To this end, water levels and water quality were monitored for 3 years regarding groundwater and adjacent surface-water bodies, at two typical suburban sites in Hanoi. Stable isotope (δ¹⁸O, δD of water) analysis and hydrochemical analysis showed that the water from both aquifers and aquitards, including the groundwater obtained from both the monitoring wells and the neighboring household tubewells, was largely derived from evaporation-affected surface-water bodies (e.g., ponds, irrigated farmlands) rather than from rivers. The water-level monitoring results suggested distinct local-scale flow systems for both a Holocene unconfined aquifer (HUA) and Pleistocene confined aquifer (PCA). That is, in the case of the HUA, lateral recharge through the aquifer from neighboring ponds and/or irrigated farmlands appeared to be dominant, rather than recharge by vertical rainwater infiltration. In the case of the PCA, recharge by the above-lying HUA, through areas where the aquitard separating the two aquifers was relatively thin or nonexistent, was suggested. As the decrease in the local surface-water bodies will likely reduce the groundwater recharge, maintaining and enhancing this recharge (through preservation of the surface-water bodies) is considered as essential for the sustainable use of groundwater in the area.

Although impacts of land-use changes on groundwater recharge have been widely demonstrated across diverse environmental settings, most previous research has focused on the role of agriculture. This study investigates recharge impacts of tree plantations in a century-old experimental forest surrounded by mixed-grass prairie in the Northern High Plains (Nebraska National Forest), USA. Recharge was estimated using solute mass balance methods from unsaturated zone cores beneath 10 experimental plots with different vegetation and planting densities. Pine and cedar plantation plots had uniformly lower moisture contents and higher solute concentrations than grasslands. Cumulative solute concentrations were greatest beneath the plots with the highest planting densities (chloride concentrations 225–240 % and sulfate concentrations 175–230 % of the grassland plot). Estimated recharge rates beneath the dense plantations (4–10 mm yr⁻¹) represent reductions of 86–94 % relative to the surrounding native grassland. Relationships between sulfate, chloride, and moisture content in the area’s relatively homogenous sandy soils confirm that the unsaturated zone solute signals reflect partitioning between drainage and evapotranspiration in this setting. This study is among the first to explore afforestation impacts on recharge beneath sandy soils and sulfate as a tracer of deep drainage.

Previous watershed assessments have relied on annual baseflow to evaluate the groundwater contribution to streams. To quantify the volume of groundwater in storage, additional information such as groundwater mean transit time (MTT) is needed. This study determined the groundwater MTT in the West Fork Duchesne watershed in Utah (USA) with lumped-parameter modeling of environmental tracers (SF₆, CFCs, and ³H/³He) from 21 springs. Approximately 30% of the springs exhibited an exponential transit time distribution (TTD); the remaining ~70% were best characterized by a piston-flow TTD. The flow-weighted groundwater MTT for the West Fork watershed is about 40 years with approximately 20 years in the unsaturated zone. A cumulative distribution of these ages revealed that most of the groundwater is between 30 and 50 years old, suggesting that declining recharge associated with 5–10-year droughts is less likely to have a profound effect on this watershed compared with systems with shorter MTTs. The estimated annual baseflow of West Fork stream flow based on chemical hydrograph separation is ~1.7 × 10⁷ m³/year, a proxy for groundwater discharge. Using both MTT and groundwater discharge, the volume of mobile groundwater stored in the watershed was calculated to be ~6.5 × 10⁸ m³, or ~20 m thickness of active groundwater storage and recharge of ~0.09 m/year (assuming porosity = 15%). Future watershed-scale assessments should evaluate groundwater MTT, in addition to annual baseflow, to quantify groundwater storage and more accurately assess watershed susceptibility to drought, groundwater extraction, and land-use change.

The water resources that supply most of the megacities in the world are under increased pressure because of land transformation, population growth, rapid urbanization, and climate-change impacts. Dhaka, in Bangladesh, is one of the largest of 22 growing megacities in the world, and it depends on mainly groundwater for all kinds of water needs. The regional groundwater-flow model MODFLOW-2005 was used to simulate the interaction between aquifers and rivers in steady-state and transient conditions during the period 1981–2013, to assess the impact of development and climate change on the regional groundwater resources. Detailed hydro-stratigraphic units are described according to 150 lithology logs, and a three-dimensional model of the upper 400 m of the Greater Dhaka area was constructed. The results explain how the total abstraction (2.9 million m³/d) in the Dhaka megacity, which has caused regional cones of depression, is balanced by recharge and induced river leakage. The simulated outcome shows the general trend of groundwater flow in the sedimentary Holocene aquifers under a variety of hydrogeological conditions, which will assist in the future development of a rational and sustainable management approach.