Sustainable management of groundwater resources is vital for development of areas at risk from water-resource over-exploitation. In northeast Thailand, the Phu Thok aquifer is an important water source, particularly in the Thaphra area, where increased groundwater withdrawals may result in water-level decline and saline-water upconing. Three-dimensional finite-difference flow models were developed with MODFLOW to predict the impacts of future pumping on hydraulic heads. Four scenarios of pumping and recharge were defined to evaluate the system response to future usage and climate conditions. Primary model simulations show that groundwater heads will continue to decrease by 4–12 m by the year 2040 at the center of the highly exploited area, under conditions of both increasing pumping and drought. To quantify predictive uncertainty in these estimates, in addition to the primary conceptual model, three alternative conceptual models were used in the simulation of sustainable yields. These alternative models show that, for this case study, a reasonable degree of uncertainty in hydrostratigraphic interpretation is more impactful than uncertainty in recharge distribution or boundary conditions. The uncertainty-analysis results strongly support addressing conceptual-model uncertainty in the practice of groundwater-management modeling. Doing so will better assist decision makers in selecting and implementing robust sustainable strategies.

Stable isotopic composition (δ²H, δ¹⁸O) of river water, groundwater, and paddy water in the Mun River catchment, northeast Thailand, were determined to investigate the hydrological processes and the impacts of natural and anthropogenic activities on the water cycle. Quantities of δ²H (−93.9 to −25.4‰) and δ¹⁸O (−12.24 to −2.22‰) in river water in the wet season follow the trend: upper reaches > middle reaches ≈ lower reaches. Trends for δ²H (−52.3 to −22.0‰) and δ¹⁸O (−6.37 to −1.36‰) in the dry season are: upper reaches ≈ middle reaches > lower reaches. In the dry season, groundwater (δ²H: −57.5 to −34.6‰, δ¹⁸O: −8.24 to −4.40‰) shows a lighter isotopic composition, and paddy water (δ²H: −18.2‰, δ¹⁸O: −0.72‰) shows the highest isotopic composition. Spatial variation of δ¹⁸O and deuterium excess suggests that groundwater exchanges with surface water frequently. Rainfall and river water recharge groundwater in the wet season, and groundwater flows back to the river in the dry season, especially in the middle reaches. This process is most likely related to impoundment of the rivers by large dams. On the other hand, the lowest values of stable isotopes of river water are coincident with the extreme flooding that was produced by Tropical Storm Sonca in July 2017. This study contributes to a better understanding of hydrological processes in the Mun River catchment and provides a perspective on the application of stable isotopes to other large tropical monsoon catchments around the world.