Study of price behavior and forecasting of important agricultural commodities: Case studies on rice, rubber, cassava products, corn and black tiger shrimp
1997
Khathalit Sittikul
Main objectives of this study were to analyze the efficiencies of price transmission of 5 important agricultural commodities: rice, rubber, cassava products, corn and black tiger shrimp, to analyze and to forecast the movement of those prices by utilizing the ARIMA model. The results of the study showed that the transmission of price from export market level to Bangkok wholesale market of almost commodities studied were rather efficient with elasticities of price transmission between 0.8658 to 0.9336 but it was only 0.3382 for cassava product, the price transmission from wholesale market to farmer market of rubber, cassava products, black tiger shrimp were very efficient with elasticities of price transmission between 0.9487 to 0.9968 but they were 0.453 and 0.7568 for rice and corn, respectively. The study of ARIMA model showed that every time series of all commodities could be adjusted to get stationary series in which they could be utilized in forecasting. There was uptrend in each series. Moreover, there were 12 month seasonal variation in price of 5 percent paddy received by farmer and Bangkok wholesale price of maize. The movement of fresh cassava price received by farmer and Bangkok wholesale price of cassava were cyclical with 16 month period. The black tiger shrimp prices received by farmer and at processing manufacture were both seasonal pattern with only 5 month period.
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