Development and climate change : review and quantitative analysis of indices of climate change exposure, adaptive capacity, sensitivity, and impacts

Adaptation to climate change is necessary, in addition to mitigation of climate change, to avoid unacceptable impacts of anthropogenic climate change [IPCC 2007]. The text is structured as follows: section two reviews different conceptualizations of 'vulnerability', focusing on the two main interpretations of this term in climate change research: outcome vulnerability and contextual and social vulnerability. This section also discusses the normative challenges involved in the construction of vulnerability indices. Section three reviews the main aggregated national-level vulnerability indices for climate change, including indices of outcome vulnerability as well as indices of contextual and social vulnerability. This section also includes a more general discussion of the potential and limitations of aggregated indices of vulnerability to climate change. Section four discusses the relationship between countries' aggregated vulnerability to climate change and their prioritization for international adaptation assistance, considering the implications of different principles of distributive justice. Section five develops a conceptual framework of vulnerability to climate change that structures disaggregated information on the vulnerability of countries in a way that is particularly well suited to inform the prioritization of international adaptation assistance. This conceptual framework distinguishes five groups of vulnerability factors and two groups of adaptability factors. It is based on the IPCC definition of vulnerability but also considers more recent findings on the components of vulnerability to climate change. The relationship between the various components of vulnerability and adaptability and 'fair' allocations for adaptation are discussed, and controversial normative issues are highlighted. The conceptual framework is illustrated by vulnerability indicators for four main climate-sensitive sectors. Section six presents results from a quantitative assessment of selected vulnerability factors for different climate-sensitive sectors, including on the justice implications of climate change for different sectors. A comprehensive quantitative assessment is beyond the scope of this study. Section seven summarizes the main findings of this report, drawing primarily on the enumerated key messages highlighted in bold face.