Western North Pacific Tropical Cyclone Formation and Structure Change in TCS-08
2011
Harr, Patrick A | Elsberry, Russell L
The long-term goal of this project is to develop a better understanding of mesoscale and synoptic-scale processes associated with the entire life cycle of tropical cyclones in the western North Pacific. The inability to correctly identify tropical cyclone formation over the period of 24 to 48 hours poses a threat to shore and afloat assets across the western North Pacific. Furthermore, once a tropical cyclone has formed, the predictability of structural changes during the intensification of the cyclone is very low, which is due to complex physical processes that vary over a wide range of space and time scales. Periods of reduced predictability occur throughout the tropical cyclone life cycle, which includes the decaying stage. Because decaying tropical cyclones often transition to a fast-moving and rapidly developing extratropical cyclone that may contain gale-, storm-, or hurricane-force winds, there is a need to improve understanding and prediction of the extratropical transition phase of a decaying tropical cyclone. The structural evolution of the transition from a tropical to an extratropical circulation involves rapid changes to the wind, cloud, and precipitation patterns that potentially impact maritime and shore-based facilities.
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