Future trends of the vegetation from Central Karakoram National Park, Gilgit-Baltistan, Pakistan

This study was conducted to assess the present status and future trends of 32 stands of forest, shrubs and herbs from Central Karakoram National Park (CKNP), Gilgit-Baltistan, Pakistan. On the basis of phytosociological analysis and maximum important value index (IVI), first three dominant species were selected to examine size class distribution in non-forested vegetation while in forested area all species were considered for further analysis. In forested areas, Picea smithiana, Pinus wallichiana and Juniperus excelsa formed either pure stands or mixtures of various species, which shows that certain combinations of environmental factors, including disturbance, play a role in non-forested sites Rosa webbiana, Hippo phaerhamnoides, Berberis lycium, Tamarix indica, Ribes orientale, Ribes alpestre and juniper communis were associated with disturbed and unstable conditions. Most of the stands did not show the ideal situation and no inverse J-shaped curve was formed. Seven stands showed the positive skewness distribution, 5 stands attained flat distribution, 4 stands normal distribution, 3 stands distributed in rectangular manner, 3 stands gave bimodal shape, 3 stands attained unimodal shape while the remaining stands were distributed with U-shaped and leptokurtic shape. In these stands, young classes are absent indicating cessation of further recruitment. Poor floristic similarities between stands at different elevations and slopes were observed but Rosa webbiana and Picea smithiana showed higher density within such stands. Pine tree species were also distributed in different areas with higher density and basal area. It is shown that vegetation is deteriorating under anthropogenic disturbances, which predicts dangerous situation for future. Therefore, special attention is needed to protect these forests and the natural vegetation upon which the wildlife depends.