Prediction of the Flight Times of Hydrochara affinis and Sternolophus rufipes in Paddy Fields Based on RCP 8.5 Scenario
2016
Choi, S.K., National Academy of Agricultural Science, RDA, Wanju, Republic of Korea | Kim, M.H., National Academy of Agricultural Science, RDA, Wanju, Republic of Korea | Choe, L.J., Food and Rural Affairs, Pyeongchang, Republic of Korea | Eo, J., National Academy of Agricultural Science, RDA, Wanju, Republic of Korea | Bang, H.S., National Academy of Agricultural Science, RDA, Wanju, Republic of Korea
The total area of paddy field was estimated to be 55 % of the cultivated lands in South Korea, which is approximately 1 million hectares. Organisms inhabiting paddy fields if they are sensitive to environmental changes can be environmental indicator of paddy fields. Biological indicators such as phenology and distributional range are evaluated as intuitive and quantitative method to analyze the impact of climate change. This study aims to estimate flight time change of Hydrophilidae species’ based on the RCP 8.5 climate change scenario. Unmanned monitoring systems were installed in Haenam, Buan, Dangjin and Cheorwon relative to the latitudinal gradient. In the three regions excepting Cheorwon, it was able to measure the abundance of flying Hydrochara affinis and Sternolophus rufipes. Degree-day for the flight time was determined based either on field measurement values and estimates of 2020s, 2050s and 2080s from KMA climate change scenario data. As a result, it is found that date of both species of initial flight becomes 15 days earlier, that of peak flight becomes 22 days earlier and that of final flight does 27 days earlier in 2080s compared to 2020s. The climate change impact on flight time is greater in coastal area, rural area and valley than inland area, urban area and plan. H. affinis and S. rufipes can be used as climate change indicator species.
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