Influence of Population Size, the Human Development Index and the Gross Domestic Product on Mortality by COVID-19 in the Southeast Region of Brazil

Mônica Feresini Groppo; Francisco Carlos Groppo; Sidney Raimundo Figueroba; Antonio Carlos Pereira

Influence of Population Size, the Human Development Index and the Gross Domestic Product on Mortality by COVID-19 in the Southeast Region of Brazil

2022

Mônica Feresini Groppo | Francisco Carlos Groppo | Sidney Raimundo Figueroba | Antonio Carlos Pereira

We evaluated the influence of population size (POP), HDI (Human Development Index) and GDP (gross domestic product) on the COVID-19 pandemic in the Southeast region of Brazil, between February 2020 and May 2021. Methods: Cases, deaths, incidence coefficient, mortality rate and lethality rate were compared among states. The cities were divided into strata according to POP, GDP, and HDI. Data were compared by Welch&rsquo:s ANOVA, nonlinear polynomial regression, and Spearman&rsquo:s correlation test (rS). Results: The highest incidence coefficient (p &lt: 0.0001) and mortality rate (p &lt: 0.05) were observed in the states of Esp&iacute:rito Santo and Rio de Janeiro, respectively. Until the 45th week, the higher the POP, the higher the mortality rate (p &lt: 0.01), with no differences in the remaining period (p &gt: 0.05). There was a strong positive correlation between POP size and the number of cases (rS = 0.92, p &lt: 0.0001) and deaths (rS = 0.88, p &lt: 0.0001). The incidence coefficient and mortality rate were lower (p &lt: 0.0001) for low GDP cities. Both coefficients were higher in high- and very high HDI cities (p &lt: 0.0001). The lethality rate was higher in the state of Rio de Janeiro (p &lt: 0.0001), in large cities (p &lt: 0.0001), in cities with medium GDP (p &lt: 0.0001), and in those with high HDI (p &lt: 0.05). Conclusions: Both incidence and mortality were affected by time, with minimal influence of POP, GDP and HDI.

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