Decoupling CO₂ Emissions from Economic Growth in China’s Cities from 2000 to 2020: A Case Study of the Pearl River Delta Agglomeration

As one of the most densely populated, economically developed, and outwardly open urban agglomerations in China, the Pearl River Delta (PRD) urban agglomeration is a key player in achieving China’s carbon peak and carbon neutrality targets. This study analyzes low-emission development by examining the evolutionary patterns of carbon dioxide (CO₂) emissions and the decoupling relationship between economic growth and CO₂ emissions, using the latest available data from 2000 to 2020. Here are the main findings: (1) We found a significant fluctuation in the decoupling statuses between economic advancements and CO₂ emissions within the PRD domain. Predominantly, a weak decoupling scenario was observed, where economic proliferations were paralleled by nearly equivalent increments in CO₂ emissions. (2) The growth rate of carbon emissions increased significantly relative to economic expansion during 2015–2020, especially pronounced in cities such as Guangdong, Zhuhai, Foshan, and Dongguan. This delineates the persistent challenges in steering towards a pathway of energy conservation and emission abatement in the region. (3) Furthermore, a differential role of elasticity factors was noted across cities: Guangzhou and Shenzhen witnessed a significant influence of energy-saving elasticity in fostering a decoupling between economic surge and CO₂ emissions, whereas in other cities, the emphasis shifted towards emission-reduction elasticity as a more vital determinant. The results of this study are of great significance for guiding policy makers and stakeholders in urban clusters across China and in similar regions globally to achieve low carbon development goals.