Integrated models, scenarios and dynamics of climate, land use and common birds
2014
Ay, Jean-Sauveur | Chakir, Raja | Doyen, Luc | Jiguet, Frédéric | Leadley, Paul | Economie Publique (ECO-PUB) ; Institut National de la Recherche Agronomique (INRA)-AgroParisTech | Centre d'Ecologie et des Sciences de la COnservation (CESCO) ; Muséum national d'Histoire naturelle (MNHN)-Université Pierre et Marie Curie - Paris 6 (UPMC)-Centre National de la Recherche Scientifique (CNRS) | Groupe de Recherche en Economie Théorique et Appliquée (GREThA) ; Université de Bordeaux (UB)-Centre National de la Recherche Scientifique (CNRS) | Ecologie Systématique et Evolution (ESE) ; Université Paris-Sud - Paris 11 (UP11)-AgroParisTech-Centre National de la Recherche Scientifique (CNRS) | French Agence Nationale de la Recherche through the ModULand project [ANR-11-BSH1-005] | ANR-11-BSH1-0005,ModULand,Usage des sols : modèles, dynamique et décisions(2011)
Reconciling food, fiber and energy production with biodiversity conservation is among the greatest challenges of the century, especially in the face of climate change. Model-based scenarios linking climate, land use and biodiversity can be exceptionally useful tools for decision support in this context. We present a modeling framework that links climate projections, private land use decisions including farming, forest and urban uses and the abundances of common birds as an indicator of biodiversity. Our major innovation is to simultaneously integrate the direct impacts of climate change and land use on biodiversity as well as indirect impacts mediated by climate change effects on land use, all at very fine spatial resolution. In addition, our framework can be used to evaluate incentive-based conservation policies in terms of land use and biodiversity over several decades. The results for our case study in France indicate that the projected effects of climate change dominate the effects of land use on bird abundances. As a conservation policy, implementing a spatially uniform payment for pastures has a positive effect in relatively few locations and only on the least vulnerable bird species.
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