Modeling of the Eurasian beaver (Castor fiber L.) population dynamics in the basin of a small Oka River tributary, the Tadenka River (Prioksko-Terrasnyi Nature Reserve)

Petrosyan, V. G.; Golubkov, V. V.; Goryainova, Z. I.; Zav’yalov, N. A.; Al’bov, S. A.; Khli︠a︡p, L. A.; Dgebuadze, I︠U︡. I︠U︡.

Modeling of the Eurasian beaver (Castor fiber L.) population dynamics in the basin of a small Oka River tributary, the Tadenka River (Prioksko-Terrasnyi Nature Reserve)

2013

A parametric time-discrete model for the beaver population dynamics starting from their invasion (1948) to the present day (2011) in the Tadenka River basin is described. It is shown that the population size tends to a stationary state in the presence of a quasi-periodic component of 14–26 years. Model estimates for the dynamics suggest that the periodic component has a sawtooth shape with the number of beavers increasing from minimum to maximum in each period for 6 years and decreasing from maximum to minimum during the remaining part of the period. The oscillation amplitude of the quasi-periodic component is approximately six individuals and displays a weak trend of increase. It is assumed that further development of this beaver population will depend on many random events influencing the factors that control beaver population size, such as specific geomorphological features of the area, restoration rate of food resources in the abandoned habitats, scale of beaver settlement development, and its rate. Stability analysis of the stationary solution and assessment of the model adequacy suggest that the proposed discrete model is appropriate for quantitatively describing the dynamics of the local beaver populations in other areas depending on the availability of food resources.

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