Identifying Optimal Security Management Policy for Water–Energy–Food Nexus System under Stochastic and Fuzzy Conditions

Liu, Jing; Li, Yongping; Li, Xiao

Identifying Optimal Security Management Policy for Water–Energy–Food Nexus System under Stochastic and Fuzzy Conditions

2020

Liu, Jing | Li, Yongping | Li, Xiao

An interval-stochastic-fuzzy policy analysis model is proposed to generate optimal security management policy for a water–energy–food nexus system of the urban agglomeration under multiple uncertainties. A number of planning policies under interval-stochastic surface water and groundwater conditions are obtained. Ranking scores of all policies in descending order, policy with the highest score is the best choice. Results disclose that (a) interval-stochastic available water resources lead to changing system benefits. (b) The shares of cropland area targets are 2.7% (Xiamen), 42.6% (Zhangzhou), and 54.7% (Quanzhou). (c) Different available water scenarios result in varied irrigation patterns. (d) Surface water takes a high fraction of the total water supply (about [71.34, 73.68]%), diesel agricultural machinery service more than 60% of the total cropland. (e) Zhangzhou contributes about 50.01% of total TN and TP emissions, while Quanzhou contributes about 50.61% of total carbon emission. (f) Security level of policies would change with the varied σ and α values, due to the risk attitudes of policy makers. (h) Sweet potato and others are the crops with the highest safety performance; (i) Zhangzhou is the city with highest comprehensive safety performance.

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