Modelling driving factors of PM2.5 concentrations in port cities of the Yangtze River Delta

Zhang, Yang; Zhou, Rui; Hu, Daoxian; Chen, Jihong; Xu, Lang

Modelling driving factors of PM2.5 concentrations in port cities of the Yangtze River Delta

2022

Zhang, Yang | Zhou, Rui | Hu, Daoxian | Chen, Jihong | Xu, Lang

PM₂.₅ is one of the major air pollutants in port cities of the Yangtze River Delta (YRD) of China. Understanding the driving factors of PM₂.₅ is essential to guide air pollution prevention and control. We selected 17 major port cities in YRD to study the driving factors of PM₂.₅ in 2019 and 2020. Generalized Additive Models were built to model the non-linear effects of single, multiple and interactions of driving factors on the variations of PM₂.₅. NO₂, SO₂ and the day of year are most strongly associated with the variation of PM₂.₅ concentration when used alone. Anthropogenic emissions play complicated roles in regulating PM₂.₅ concentration. Although the effect of cargo throughput (CT) on PM₂.₅ concentration is non-monotonic, higher PM₂.₅ levels are found to be associated with higher levels of SO₂ and CT. This work can potentially provide a scientific basis for formulating PM₂.₅ prevention and control policies in the region.

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