Prediction model of production patterns of shallot development in the highlands of Indonesia

Andayani, Sri Ayu; Sukmawani, Reny; Marina, Ida; Sulaksana, Jaka; Rahman, Ulfa Indah Laela; Dinar,; Sumekar, Yayan; Ismail, Agus Yadi; Dani, Umar; Suhaeni,

Prediction model of production patterns of shallot development in the highlands of Indonesia

2021

Majalengka’s great potential in shallot production has not been optimal in terms of continuity and stability of production and prices. For this reason, it is necessary to arrange the production pattern and downstream horticulture of shallots to be sustainable throughout the year. The purpose of this study is to map and identify production patterns in order to make prediction model that provides production and price stability with various strategies using Fuzzy logic approach based on ANFIS. In this method time series data, written information, with input variables of production patterns with a cropping pa tern system and production patterns was used with a system of shallot needs with an output variable. The results of the analysis indicate that the prediction of the production pattern of the shallot cropping pattern was more emphasized on adjustment to the needs of the use and consumption value, also the prediction of the production pattern was adjusted to the results of the analysis per quarter by looking at the market objectives both for the consumption market (around 40-50% in quarter I, III and industry only around 20-30% and 60% seeds for quarter III and quarter I, II only 20%) as well as recommendationson theimplementation of various strategies that are expected through the establishment ofinformation centers on cropping patterns, creation of new market opportunities, partnership pattern, expansion of planting area. The hope of this research is to strengthen the strategy for achieving sustainable shallot production.

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