Using the seasonal FGM(1,1) model to predict the air quality indicators in Xingtai and Handan

Wu, LF; Li, Nu; Zhao, Ting

Using the seasonal FGM(1,1) model to predict the air quality indicators in Xingtai and Handan

2019

Wu, LF | Li, Nu | Zhao, Ting

The air pollution problem in Xingtai and Handan is the focus of public attention. The seasonal gray model with fractional order accumulation is proposed to predict the quarterly concentrations of PM₂.₅, PM₁₀, NO₂, and CO in Xingtai and Handan. The new model has higher forecasting performance and can describe the characteristics of seasonal fluctuation very well. The forecasting results indicated that except for the PM₁₀ in Xingtai that will increase slowly, the other indicators in the two places will decrease. The changes of the air quality indicator concentration in different quarters are obvious, and in the same quarter tend to be stable. Except for CO and NO₂ in some seasons, other indicators are in the state of exceeding the standard. The effect of air pollution control is not good. The governance needs to be further strengthened.

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