Effects of climate change on the potential habitat distribution of swimming crab Portunus trituberculatus under the species distribution model

Liu, Xingyu; Han, Xiaolu; Han, Zhiqiang

Effects of climate change on the potential habitat distribution of swimming crab Portunus trituberculatus under the species distribution model

2022

Liu, Xingyu | Han, Xiaolu | Han, Zhiqiang

Over the last decades, the species distribution model (SDM) has become an essential tool for studying the potential effects of climate change on species distribution. In this study, an ensemble SDM was developed to predict the changes in species distribution of swimming crab Portunus trituberculatus across different seasons in the future (2050s and 2100s) under the climate scenarios of Representative Concentration Pathway (RCP)4.5 and RCP8.5. Results of the ensemble SDM indicate that the distribution of this species will move northward and exhibit evident seasonal variations. Among the four seasons, the suitable habitat for this species will be significantly reduced in summer, with loss rates ranging from 45.23% (RCP4.5) to 88.26% (RCP.8.5) by the 2100s. The loss of habitat will mostly occur in the East China Sea and the southern part of the Yellow Sea, while a slight increase in habitat will occur in the northern part of the Bohai Sea. These findings provide an information forecast for this species in the future. Such forecast will be helpful in improving fishery management under climate change.

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