Research on the relationship between China’s greenhouse gas emissions and industrial structure and economic growth from the perspective of energy consumption

Zhang, Ziyan; Ma, Xiaojun; Lian, Xinyan; Guo, Yishan; Song, Yanqi; Chang, Baishu; Luo, Liangqing

Research on the relationship between China’s greenhouse gas emissions and industrial structure and economic growth from the perspective of energy consumption

2020

A comprehensive understanding of the relationships between greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions and industrial structure and economic growth holds great significance for China to realize the development of a green economy. This paper calculates GHG emissions based on China’s energy consumption, divides the industrial structure in detail, and uses the extended Stochastic Impacts by Regression on Population, Affluence, and Technology model that is realized by PLS method and Tapio decoupling model to study the relationship of GHG emissions to industrial structure and economic growth. The results show that (1) China’s total GHG emissions showed a year-on-year growth trend from 2000 to 2017. For CO₂, CH₄, and N₂O, only N₂O emission showed a significant downward trend, while CO₂ and CH₄ emissions showed a slow growth trend. (2) The proportions of added value of industry and construction are positively correlated with GHG emissions, while those of farming, forestry, animal husbandry, and fishery; wholesale and retail trade; transport; and accommodation and catering are negatively correlated with GHG emissions. (3) China’s GHG emissions and overall economic growth are in a decoupling state, but in the energy field, N₂O emission reduction control has the best effect. Additionally, the overall economic growth of China’s industrial sector and GHG emissions have experienced the process of decoupling-link-negative decoupling-link-decoupling. Graphical abstract

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