Seismic hazard assessment of Syria using seismicity, DEM, slope, active faults and GIS

The present paper discusses the use of an integrated remote sensing and Geographical Information System (GIS) techniques for evaluation of seismic hazard areas in Syria. In the proposed approach, we have used the Advanced Spaceborne Thermal Emission and Reflection Radiometer (Aster) satellite data, digital elevation data (30m resolution), earthquake data, and active tectonic maps. Many important factors for evaluation of seismic hazard were identified and corresponding thematic data layers (past earthquake epicenters, active faults, digital elevation model, and slope) were generated. A numerical rating scheme has been developed for spatial data analysis using GIS to identify ranking of parameters for the evaluation of seismic hazard. The resulting earthquake potential map delineates the area into different relative susceptibility classes: high, moderate, low and very low. The potential earthquake map was validated by correlating the obtained different classes with the local probability that produced using conventional analysis of observed earthquakes. Using earthquake data of Syria and the peak ground acceleration (PGA) data are included in the model to develop final seismic hazard map based on Gutenberg-Richter (a and b values) parameters and the concepts of local probability and recurrence time. The application of the proposed technique in Syrian region indicates that this method provides good estimate of seismic hazard map compared to those developed from traditional techniques deterministic (DSHA) and probabilistic seismic hazard (PSHA). For the first time, we have used numerous parameters in preparation of seismic hazard map. The evaluation of seismic hazard maps using the proposed model is found to be very realistic.