Short- and intermediate-term exposure to NO2 and mortality: A multi-county analysis in China

Nitrogen dioxide (NO₂) is a well-established traffic emissions tracer and has been associated with multiple adverse health outcomes. Short- and long-term exposure to NO₂ has been studied and is well-documented in existing literature, but information on intermediate-term NO₂ effects and mortality is lacking, despite biological plausibility. We obtained daily NO₂ and mortality data from 42 counties in China from 2013 to 2015. Distributed-lag non-linear models were employed to investigate the relationship between non-accidental mortality and NO₂ up to 30 days before the event, including PM₂.₅, temperature, relative humidity, and holidays as covariates in a random effects meta-analysis pooling county-specific estimates. We repeated the analysis for cardiovascular- and respiratory-related mortality, and explored sex-stratified associations. Per 10 μg/m³ increase in NO₂, we estimated a 0.13% (95%CI: 0.03, 0.23%), 0.57% (95%CI: −0.04, 1.18%), and −0.14% (95%CI: −1.63, 1.37%) change in non-accidental mortality for same-day and previous-day NO₂ (lag0-1 cumulated), in the preceding 7 days (lag0-7 cumulated), and in the preceding 30 days (lag0-30 cumulated), respectively. The strongest estimate was observed for respiratory-related mortality in the lag0-30 cumulated effect for women (3.12%; 95%CI: −1.66, 8.13%). We observed a trend of higher effect estimates of intermediate-term NO₂ exposure on respiratory mortality compared to that of the short-term, although the differences were not statistically significant. Our results at longer lags for all-cause and cardiovascular mortality were sensitive to modeling choices. Future work should further investigate intermediate-term air pollution exposure given their potential biological relevance, but in larger scale settings.