Implications on food production of the changing water cycle in the Vietnamese Mekong Delta
2020
Boretti, Alberto
The Mekong Delta is sinking and shrinking due to excessive groundwater withdrawal for growing agricultural and other uses, coupled to reduced flow of water and sediments caused by upstream dams, growing upstream water uses and riverbed mining, reduced replenishment of aquifers, soil compaction, infrastructural extension, and thermo-steric sea level rise. Salinization of soil and aquifers, depletion of aquifers, constraints to fish migration, increased pollution, reduced flow of nutrients, deterioration of the coastal mangrove belt, general degradation of the ecosystem, and loss of emerged land, make the production of food from agriculture and fisheries more difficult, while also limiting the availability of clean fresh water for domestic uses. The subsidence generated by excessive groundwater withdrawal is more than one order of magnitude larger than the thermo-steric sea level rise. Particularly relevant is also the effect of the reduced flow of water, and sediments caused by upstream dams and growing upstream water uses. These drivers are changing the low-lying Mekong Delta, with dramatic impacts on food security expected by as early as 2050, and the possible complete disappearance of the Mekong delta as we know by 2100. While technological developments and enforcement of mitigation and adaptation strategies expected to overcome the most part of the short term issues, with production from aquaculture actually expected to dramatically rise to 2050, but contemporary reduced growth, if not reduction in the agricultural output, these measures may not be enough by 2100. The current rates of development, in both economy and population, are, not sustainable.
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