Economic and environmental assessment of current (2015) and future (2030) use of E-fuels in light-duty vehicles in Germany

Hombach, Laura E.; Doré, Larissa; Heidgen, Katrin; Maas, Heiko; Wallington, Timothy J.; Walther, Grit

Economic and environmental assessment of current (2015) and future (2030) use of E-fuels in light-duty vehicles in Germany

2019

While e-fuels offer a path towards large scale use of renewable electricity in transportation and improved energy security their economic effectiveness is unclear. To address this gap, an economic and environmental analysis of e-fuel production in Germany using renewable wind energy, different electrolysis technologies, and Fischer-Tropsch synthesis in 2015 and 2030 was performed. For current alkaline electrolysis and future solid oxide co-electrolysis using wind energy for electrolysis, e-fuel production costs and life cycle emissions were estimated to be 4.97 €/lₑq dᵢₑₛₑₗ and 64.07 gCO₂₋ₑq/MJ in 2015, and 3.24 €/lₑq dᵢₑₛₑₗ and 6.63 gCO₂₋ₑq/MJ in 2030. The critical parameters determining e-fuel cost are electricity cost, carbon dioxide (CO₂) cost, electrolysis investment cost, and capacity utilization. Using optimistic estimates for all these parameters gives a production cost of 1.17 €/lₑq dᵢₑₛₑₗ (3.12 € ct/MJ). Abatement costs in the range 544–6424 €/tCO₂₋ₑq were estimated for e-fuels; much higher than those for competing vehicle-fuel technology options. While e-fuels are currently not a cost-effective method to reduce CO₂ emissions they could be in the future if investment cost, capacity utilization, CO₂ cost, and wind electricity cost can be improved by further research and development, or if fossil fuel prices increase substantially.

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