Evaluation of the Effect of Surface Ozone on Main Crops in East Asia: 2000, 2005, and 2020

In this paper, the possible effect of surface ozone on soybean, wheat, rice, and maize crops in East Asia in 2000, 2005, and 2020 is estimated. Spatial distribution and temporal variation of surface ozone concentrations are simulated using the Models-3 Community Multiscale Air Quality Modeling System coupled with the Regional Emission Inventory in Asia (CMAQ/REAS). The effect of surface ozone on main crops in East Asia is evaluated based on accumulated exposure over a threshold of 40 ppb (AOT40 index) during a period of 3 months of the growing season. We demonstrate some of the implications for policy-making in air quality management for East Asia by highlighting the effect of elevated surface ozone concentrations on harvest losses and the corresponding value of the main crops. These concentrations are calculated based on three scenarios of emission reduction policies in 2020: policy success case (PSC), reference case (REF), and policy failure case (PFC). Assuming no future changes in land use or cropping patterns from 2000 to 2020, we find that the highest relative yield (RY) losses are in wheat and soybean in East Asia. The RY losses for wheat are estimated to range between 17 and 35 % in 2000, 21 and 49 % in 2005, 18 and 36 % in 2020 (PSC), 20 and 46 % in 2020 (REF), and 22 and 62 % in 2020 (PFC); the corresponding values for rice are 6 and 12 %, 6 and 17 %, 6 and 15 %, 6 and 17 %, and 7 and 20 %; for soybean, they are 12 and 16 %, 19 and 25 %, 18 and 33 %, 21 and 40 %, and 25 and 49 %; and for maize, they are 3 and 4 %, 5.7 and 6 %, 6 and 9 %, 9 and 11 %, and 12 and 14 %. Quantitatively, the estimated losses in production of wheat in East Asia in 2000, 2005, and 2020 (PSC, REF, and PFC scenarios) are 32.4, 44.3, 42.2, 54.0, and 72.3 t, respectively; for rice, 34.9, 39.4, 42.4, 46.5, and 54.6 mmt; for soybean, 1.9, 3.3, 3.6, 4.9, and 7.0 mmt; and for maize, 3.6, 8.1, 11.4, 15.4, and 21.5 mmt. The estimated values of crop losses in East Asia in 2000, 2005, and 2020 (PSC, REF, and PFC scenarios) are as follows: 13.8, 17.4, 18.2, 21.3, and 26.7 billion Int. $. Therefore, adaptation measures in the PSC scenario in contrast to the PFC scenario could save around 8.5 billion Int. $ across East Asian countries in 2020.