Characterization of the temporal and spatial distribution and reproductive ratio of vesicular stomatitis outbreaks in Mexico in 2008

Arroyo, Montserrat; Perez, Andres M.; Rodriguez, Luis L.

Characterization of the temporal and spatial distribution and reproductive ratio of vesicular stomatitis outbreaks in Mexico in 2008

2011

Arroyo, Montserrat | Perez, Andres M. | Rodriguez, Luis L.

Objective--To characterize the temporal and spatial distribution and reproductive ratio of vesicular stomatitis (VS) outbreaks reported in Mexico in 2008. Procedures--The Poisson model of the space-time scan statistic was used to identify periods and geographical locations at highest risk for VS in Mexico in 2008. The herd reproductive ratio (Rh) of the epidemic was computed by use of the doubling-time method. Results--1 significant space-time cluster of VS was detected in the state of Michoacan from September 4 through December 10, 2008. The temporal extent of the VS outbreaks and the value and pattern of decrease of the Rh were different in the endemic zone of Tabasco and Chiapas, compared with findings in the region included in the space-time cluster. Conclusions and Clinical Relevance--The large number of VS outbreaks reported in Mexico in 2008 was associated with the spread of the disease from the endemic zone in southern Mexico to areas sporadically affected by the disease. Results suggested that implementation of a surveillance system in the endemic zone of Mexico aimed at early detection of changes in the value of Rh and space-time clustering of the disease could help predict occurrence of future VS outbreaks originating from this endemic zone. This information will help prevent VS spread into regions of Mexico and neighboring countries that are only sporadically affected by the disease.

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