The construction and examination of social vulnerability and its effects on PM2.5 globally: combining spatial econometric modeling and geographically weighted regression

Yang, Xinya; Geng, Liuna; Zhou, Kexin

The construction and examination of social vulnerability and its effects on PM2.5 globally: combining spatial econometric modeling and geographically weighted regression

2021

Yang, Xinya | Geng, Liuna | Zhou, Kexin

Fine particulate matter (PM2.5) is of widespread concern, as it poses a serious impact on economic development and human health. Although the influence of socioeconomic factors on PM2.5 has been studied, the constitution and the effect analysis of social vulnerability to PM2.5 remain unclear. In this study, a comprehensive theoretical framework with appropriate indicators for social vulnerability to PM2.5 was constructed. Using spatial autocorrelation analysis, a positive global spatial autocorrelation and notable local spatial cluster relationships were identified. Spatial econometric modeling and geographically weighted regression modeling were performed to explore the cause-effect relationship of social vulnerability to PM2.5. The spatial error model indicated that population and education inequality in the sensitivity dimension caused a significant positive impact on PM2.5, and biocapacity and social governance in the capacity dimension strongly contributed to the decrease of PM2.5 globally. The geographically weighted regression model revealed spatial heterogeneity in the effects of the social vulnerability variables on PM2.5 among countries. These empirical results can provide policymakers with a new perspective on social vulnerability as it relates to PM2.5 governance and targeted environmental pollution management.

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