The impact of crude oil prices on Chinese stock markets and selected sectors: evidence from the VAR-DCC-GARCH model

Hashmi, Shabir Mohsin; Ahmed, Farhan; Alhayki, Zainab; Syed, Aamir Aijaz

The impact of crude oil prices on Chinese stock markets and selected sectors: evidence from the VAR-DCC-GARCH model

2022

Hashmi, Shabir Mohsin | Ahmed, Farhan | Alhayki, Zainab | Syed, Aamir Aijaz

The interaction between oil and stock market returns is one of the most important relationships that have a significant influence on the economy of any country all over the world. Therefore, this paper investigates the impact of crude oil prices on the Chinese stock market and selected industries by using the VAR-DCC-GARCH model over the period from December 26, 2001, to April 30, 2019. The empirical results show that the impact of Brent crude oil prices on the Shanghai Composite Index and selected industries is significant. However, there are some variations in these relationships and the degree of influence on each differs during different sample periods. Brent crude oil prices exert substantial influence on some specific industries, like mining, chemical, nonferrous metals, and steel. Whereas, the volatility spillover effect of Brent crude oil prices is stronger within the mining, chemical, steel, nonferrous metal, building materials, building decoration, electrical equipment, electrical equipment, textile and garment, light manufacturing, public utility, and transportation industries than within other industries. When oil prices change abruptly, the risk of spillover impacts of oil prices on stock markets will also increase. In conclusion, the impact of Brent crude oil prices on the Chinese stock market is generally positive. Furthermore, the subsequent volatility of Chinese stock market prices will, in turn, influence the volatility spillover of Brent crude oil prices on the indexes. The result is an ongoing back and forth of changes in price volatilities.

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