An Assessment of Long-term Risks of Metals in Sudbury: A Critical Loads Approach

Over a century of metal processing activity has resulted in widespread metal contamination of soils in Sudbury, ON, Canada. To assess the potential for recovery from the large reductions in metal deposition, critical loads were estimated for metals at 415 sites in Sudbury using an ‘effects based’ approach that is based on exceedance of provincial soil guidelines using multiple independent estimates of metal partitioning (Kd) for each metal. Sudbury soils are heavily contaminated with copper (Cu) and nickel (Ni), with 74 % of samples currently exceeding the provincial soil guideline for Cu and 87 % of samples exceeding the guideline for Ni. Both metals are strongly correlated with other metals (zinc (Zn), cadmium (Cd), lead (Pb)), although they rarely exceed provincial guidelines Copper and Ni are also strongly correlated with organic matter but not soil pH. Based on the most recent Cu and Ni deposition estimates (mid-1990s), it is estimated that between 20 % and 51 % of the sites receive deposition in excess of the ‘effects based’ critical load for Cu and between 5 % and 97 % of sites receive atmospheric deposition in excess of the ‘effects based’ critical load for Ni. These results suggest that Cu and Ni concentrations in soil will generally decrease resulting in slightly fewer sites that exceed the provincial soil guideline, but that the timeframe of this response will be very slow, with relatively little change occurring over the next 100 years. Even assuming a best case deposition scenario whereby Cu and Ni deposition were to immediately fall to background levels, the percentage of sites with Cu and Ni levels in excess of the OMOE guideline would still be between 69 % and 72 %, and 56 % and 86 %, respectively, demonstrating that while recovery of the Sudbury soils is possible, greater reductions in metal deposition are needed and even so, it will be a process that takes several centuries.