Novel Approach for Identification of Basic and Effective Reproduction Numbers Illustrated with COVID-19

Tchavdar T. Marinov; Rossitza S. Marinova; Radoslav T. Marinov; Nicci Shelby

Novel Approach for Identification of Basic and Effective Reproduction Numbers Illustrated with COVID-19

2023

Tchavdar T. Marinov | Rossitza S. Marinova | Radoslav T. Marinov | Nicci Shelby

This paper presents a novel numerical technique for the identification of effective and basic reproduction numbers, <inline-formula><math xmlns="http://www.w3.org/1998/Math/MathML" display="inline"><semantics><msub><mi>R</mi><mi>e</mi></msub></semantics></math></inline-formula> and <inline-formula><math xmlns="http://www.w3.org/1998/Math/MathML" display="inline"><semantics><msub><mi>R</mi><mn>0</mn></msub></semantics></math></inline-formula>, for long-term epidemics, using an inverse problem approach. The method is based on the direct integration of the SIR (Susceptible–Infectious–Removed) system of ordinary differential equations and the least-squares method. Simulations were conducted using official COVID-19 data for the United States and Canada, and for the states of Georgia, Texas, and Louisiana, for a period of two years and ten months. The results demonstrate the applicability of the method in simulating the dynamics of the epidemic and reveal an interesting relationship between the number of currently infectious individuals and the effective reproduction number, which is a useful tool for predicting the epidemic dynamics. For all conducted experiments, the results show that the local maximum (and minimum) values of the time-dependent effective reproduction number occur approximately three weeks before the local maximum (and minimum) values of the number of currently infectious individuals. This work provides a novel and efficient approach for the identification of time-dependent epidemics parameters.

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