Present and Future Extreme Weather in Sweden According to the d4PDF

Английский. Natural events that happen more rarely have historically been more difficult to study and continue to require different methods. For example, rare occurrences of natural disasters and weather events can have return periods of thousands of years but because of their large impact are very important to study. In addition to being used to study the changing climate, climate models have the advantage of being able to produce large amounts of climate data. This is taken advantage of by the climate data database d4PDF which is especially customized for extreme weather analysis through having 6000 years of data in both the present and end-of-century climate in the RCP8.5 development scenario. Additionally, the future climate parameters are chosen in order to disregard the climate change during the simulated period. The d4PDF data for Sweden was validated for the general temperature and precipitation climate and found to match well with observation data and other climate change simulations. The temperature and precipitation increases the most in the North and during the winter season. Moreover, it was found that the maximum daily temperature of the year increases in general quite evenly – except for in the South-East where the increase for long return period events is higher. For precipitation events it was found that the precipitation increases most for short duration events and that it increases more for events with longer return periods.

Английский. Natural events that happen more rarely have historically been more difficult to study and continue to require different methods. For example, rare occurrences of natural disasters and weather events can have return periods of thousands of years but because of their large impact are very important to study. In addition to being used to study the changing climate, climate models have the advantage of being able to produce large amounts of climate data. This is taken advantage of by the climate data database d4PDF which is especially customized for extreme weather analysis through having 6000 years of data in both the present and end-of-century climate in the RCP8.5 development scenario. Additionally, the future climate parameters are chosen in order to disregard the climate change during the simulated period. The d4PDF data for Sweden was validated for the general temperature and precipitation climate and found to match well with observation data and other climate change simulations. The temperature and precipitation increases the most in the North and during the winter season. Moreover, it was found that the maximum daily temperature of the year increases in general quite evenly – except for in the South-East where the increase for long return period events is higher. For precipitation events it was found that the precipitation increases most for short duration events and that it increases more for events with longer return periods.